Bubble growing with one month to go

15 02 2010

Four weeks from yesterday is Selection Sunday, the college sports world’s national holiday.  To nobody’s surprise, the bubble seems to be growing as conference play heats up.  Below is the complete list of who’s in and who’s out (at large berths only) if the tournament started on Valentine’s Day.  For now, I’m just saying that the team with the best conference record in each conference is automatically in, which is why you won’t see them on the list of “locks.”  In cases where teams were tied for the conference lead, I gave the team with the higher RPI the bid.

At large locks:

ACC (3)
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
Maryland

Atlantic 10 (3)
Temple
Charlotte
Xavier

Big East (4)
Syracuse
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Georgetown

Big Ten (3)
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin

Big 12 (4)
Kansas State
Texas A&M
Baylor
Texas

Conference USA (1)
UAB

Mountain West (2)
BYU
UNLV

SEC (2)
Vanderbilt
Tennessee

West Coast (1)
St. Mary’s

This leaves 11 at large bids up for grabs.  Below is who takes them (in order) as of tonight.

1)  Rhode Island Rams – That’s right.  The strongest bubble team is the Rams.  With an RPI of 21, the 19-5 Rams have wins over Dayton and Oklahoma State, and no terrible losses.  The Atlantic 10 is better than the Pac 10, SEC and Mountain West, at least in the top half.

2)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Despite the recent slide, the Jackets have the best strength of schedule in the ACC after Duke, and still only seven losses.  They have five wins against the RPI top 40, and if you’re wondering how deep the ACC is, know that Tech is currently in eighth.

3)  Clemson Tigers – Clemson’s resumé is nearly identical to Georgia Tech’s.  The Tigers’ strength of schedule ranks 31, and they are #30 in the RPI.  They sit sixth in the ACC with nonconference wins over Butler and South Carolina, as well as wins over Maryland and Florida State.

4)  Dayton Flyers – Another A-10 team deserving of a spot is the Flyers.  They are 17-7 but have slipped to seventh in the conference at 6-4.  They beat Georgia Tech and Old Dominion out of conference, and Xavier in conference.  The RPI ranking is #32, and the strength of schedule is #30.

5)  Missouri Tigers – The nonconference schedule was not great, but wins over Old Dominion and Illinois are looking better this month than they did in January.  Quality losses include Richmond, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Baylor and Texas A&M.  The Tigers are in sixth in the nation’s best conference.

6)  Marquette Golden Eagles – Marquette has been competitive in every game this season, and the worst is behind them.  However, an RPI ranked #56 and a strength of schedule ranked #54 are worrisome, but they have worked themselves into a situation where they could finish fourth in the Big East.

7)  Florida State Seminoles – FSU lacks the big win, but does have enough quality victories and few enough bad losses to warrant a tournament berth.  Losing to Maryland twice hurt, but they did beat Georgia Tech twice to make up for it.  They are tied for sixth in the ACC.

8)  Oklahoma State Cowboys – If the Cowboys’ worst loss is at Oklahoma, count them in.  The Pokes have wins over Kansas State and Texas A&M, no bad losses and a strength of schedule ranked #44.  The RPI is in the top 40, and they are 5-5 in the Big 12.

9)  Mississippi Rebels – Ole Miss has done just enough to squeeze into the field, the biggest asset being a win over Kansas State.  Four of the Rebels’ seven losses are to teams in the top 20 in RPI.  The strength of schedule isn’t eye-opening, but outside of Arkansas, they’ve won all the games they’re supposed to win.

10)  Illinois Fighting Illini – The Illini were a lock until the Ohio State blowout.  Even so, they’re winning the games they should win in the Big Ten, and playing well at the right time.  Wins over Michigan State and Purdue were a big boost for the team currently in fourth in the Big Ten.

11)  Florida Gators – They’ve played a tough schedule and have only two losses against teams with an RPI below 27.  Their biggest problem is lack of quality wins.  Despite that, I’m still taking the Gators as my last team in with only eight losses over a Louisville team with three bad losses and nine overall losses.

On the outside looking in:

Louisville
Texas Tech
Wichita State
Mississippi State
San Diego State
Virginia
Cincinnati
Washington
South Carolina


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Categories : Sports

Five must-see bowls, five snoozers

8 12 2009

The 2009-2010 bowl season is sure to produce some interesting storylines, even if the games may not be great.  In the Sugar Bowl, a top five offense will clash with a top five defense.  In Dallas, a Cotton Bowl matchup features two teams with explosive offenses who both have to feel disappointed to be in that game.  The day after Christmas, USC will play a bowl game.  Six days later, Bobby Bowden will coach his final game, against his former team.  Three days after that, two non-BCS schools will meet in a BCS bowl.

Here, I give you five bowls to watch even if it means skipping work or family reunions, and five bowls with which you can hit the snooze button.

Sleep through…

5)  Chick-fil-A Bowl:  When Virginia Tech meets Tennessee on New Year’s Eve, things will get ugly.  The Hokies have to consider this season a disappointment, yet they have a chance for another 10-win season under Frank Beamer.  The Hokie defense will make life miserable for a vanilla Tennessee offense and should win comfortably.  Alternative suggestion: start your New Year’s Eve plans early.

4)  Fiesta Bowl: Is the BCS really this scared?  Two of the past three years, a BCS buster has knocked off a powerhouse.  So logically, the BCS puts its two undefeated busters up against each other as to not ruin this system by having another Oklahoma or Alabama fall in the spotlight.  I thought the point of these teams making it to a BCS game was to see how they matched up with BCS schools.  Now we’ll never know.  Alternative suggestion: rewind time and put TCU up against Georgia Tech and Iowa against Boise State.

3)  Texas Bowl: Navy still has one more game to play, meaning they lose two weeks of preparation on Missouri, whom they will play on New Year’s Eve in Houston.  Not only that, but Navy can’t throw the ball.  In fact, they won a game this year in which they didn’t even attempt a pass.  If they try to run, Missouri will stuff it (12th in the nation against the run).  If they try to throw, they will be out of their element.  On the other side, the Tigers have scored at least 32 points in five straight games.  It won’t be close.  Alternative suggestion: see Chick-fil-A Bowl suggestion.

2)  Gator Bowl: That’s really nice of the Gator Bowl to invite Bobby Bowden to play his last game there.  So cute.  Too bad the whole nation will be watching a different 1 p.m. New Year’s Day bowl instead.  Bowden and Florida State do not belong in this game after a .500 finish.  Not only that, but they are going up against a talented West Virginia team which ended the season with wins over Pitt and Rutgers, and a near shocker in Cincinnati.  The ‘Noles don’t have a defense, and West Virginia will exploit that early and often.  Alternative suggestion: watch ABC (see below for why).

1)  Emerald Bowl: Yes, the most boring yet comedic thing to watch will be Boston College trying to move the ball on USC’s defense.  Despite the Trojans’ struggles this season, the defense has been relatively stable against bad offenses, and Boston College’s is ranked 97th in the country.  Give Pete Carroll a month to prepare for anyone, and they’re in trouble.  The Eagles don’t have a chance, especially in San Francisco.  Alternative suggestion: leave one Christmas present unopened so you have something to look forward to the next day.

Must-see games

5)  Holiday Bowl: What a dandy this will be.  Heisman candidate Ndamukong Suh and the ninth ranked Nebraska defense faces a top 20 defense in Arizona.  Normally I like Nebraska in this game, but the game being in San Diego neutralizes things.  Arizona is riding high after winning at USC, and Nebraska is feeling good about their “win” against Texas.  Double digits may be enough to win this game.

4)  Rose Bowl: The best BCS matchup features the perennial Big Ten champion Ohio State Buckeyes and…someone other than USC.  This alone makes it a must watch, but considering it’s the Ducks, a team that got white-hot after an opening night loss to Boise State, it should be a classic.  Terrelle Pryor and Jeremiah Masoli should set off plenty of fireworks.

3)  Las Vegas Bowl: It’s amazing that a team can go from playing on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl to playing in a bowl on Dec. 22.  But that’s exactly what happened to the Oregon State Beavers after a heartbreaking loss in Eugene Thursday night.  In comes BYU, a team with lofty expectations before being trampled at home by Florida State, then TCU.  And if there’s anyone who can take apart the Beavers, it’s underrated senior quarterback Max Hall, who is ahead of Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow and Kellen Moore in passing yards per game despite fewer passing attempts.  Buckle up for an offensive explosion.

2)  Poinsettia Bowl: Ironically, last year’s Poinsettia Bowl featured Boise State and TCU, with a final scored of 17-16.  This year the San Diego bowl game should be equally entertaining.  Two teams ranked in the preseason top 25 meet, and this will be about Utah’s defense trying to stop California’s Jahvid Best, who will be returning from a concussion suffered last month.  Both teams are out to prove that early season losses were a fluke.

1)  Capital One Bowl: The best bowl game of the season takes place in Orlando on New Year’s Day.  LSU will face Penn State, and if you recall, things were looking up for these teams in November.  Penn State had Ohio State coming to Happy Valley for the conference championship, while LSU actually held a lead on Alabama.  Neither team came through though, and wind up here instead.  The key to this game is LSU’s defense.  They must hold Penn State down, because the Tiger offense, ranked #108 in the country, won’t have a lot of opportunities against Penn State’s eighth ranked defense.


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Categories : Sports

College football rankings – Oct. 26

26 10 2009

Longhorn fans, hate me all you want.  Your team is now #4 in the most prestigious rankings in the country.  This despite a 34 point blowout road win.  Gator fans, hate me all you want.  Your team is still #2, despite Alabama’s near collapse against the Vols.  Bronco fans, hate me now.  Your team is #6, despite a blowout win on the island.  Yes, my rankings may make your head scratch and your forehead wrinkle.  But there’s justification here.  Boise State hasn’t played anybody, prompting Iowa to jump them.  Alabama has still played better teams than Florida.  And I’ll explain the Texas setback in a blog post tomorrow, for it is the one that could mean the most come Dec. 6.

1)  Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) – I picked the Vols to win, and they probably should have.  But they didn’t.  Alabama’s defense was stiff enough in another quality win.  They get a bye week to prepare for LSU’s trip to Tuscaloosa.

2)  Florida Gators (7-0) – Something is off with the offense.  Playing a relatively weak SEC schedule, they have broken 30 just once in five conference games.  Red zone offense has been a problem.  In 35 trips, they have only 16 touchdowns.

3)  Iowa Hawkeyes (8-0) – The Hawkeyes are 8-0 for the first time ever after beating a hot Michigan State team in East Lansing.  It’s not pretty, but this team finds ways to win.  The offense, ranked #87 in the country, needs to play better.

4)  Texas Longhorns (7-0) – Colt McCoy is closing in on the all time FBS wins record after an impressive 41-7 win against Missouri.  It’s Texas’ first well-played game in the conference, and it comes just in time.  They go to Stillwater next.

5)  Cincinnati Bearcats (7-0) – Can we still say Cincinnati is flying under the radar?  They are blowing teams out while making their best case for a title shot.  After Syracuse, things get tough with games against UConn, West Virginia and Pitt.

6)  Boise State Broncos (7-0) – If the Broncos want any prayer of playing for a national championship, they’ll need four teams ahead of them on this list to lose.  They are winning by similar margins against much worse teams – simple as that.

7)  LSU Tigers (6-1) – LSU came off the bye week by throttling Auburn.  Their only loss is Florida, and they’ve allowed 20+ points just twice.  They go to Alabama in two weeks and can still control their own destiny to a conference championship.

8)  Oregon Ducks (6-1) – The Ducks continue to roll.  Jeremiah Masoli came back this week to throw for 157 yards and a touchdown, and added two rushing touchdowns too.  If they beat USC Saturday, The Trojans will miss a BCS game.

9)  Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) – Hammering Michigan by 25 in the Big House will get you back on track.  Penn State’s defense is the reason they are beating teams up.  They are #3 in the nation, allowing just 240 yards per game.

10)  TCU Horned Frogs (7-0) – The Horned Frogs’ four biggest wins have come on the road.  After blowing out BYU in Provo, TCU should finish 12-0.  Will the BCS take both them and an undefeated Boise State team?

11)  Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) – The Texas A&M win looks better after A&M blew out Texas Tech in Lubbock, but otherwise it hasn’t been much of a schedule for the Cowboys.  A win this week puts them in control of the south.

12)  USC Trojans (6-1) - Maybe my expectations are too high for this team, but I just don’t think one possession wins are good enough against the Pac 10.  Matt Barkley’s two interceptions are concerning, as is the defense all of a sudden.

13)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-1) – Virginia was the only remaining unbeaten in the ACC until Georgia Tech crushed them.  With the Miami loss, the Yellow Jackets are now in line to win the Coastal if they can beat Wake and Duke.

14)  Houston Cougars (6-1) – It’s time to start seriously considering Case Keenum for Heisman.  He leads the nation in total offense, completions per game, passing yards per game and is second in touchdown passes.

15)  Pittsburgh Panthers (7-1) – A solid win over South Florida topped with a lot of one loss teams going down bumps Pitt up to 15.  They now enter a stretch in which they play just two games in 33 days.  The showdown with Cincy is Dec. 5.

16)  Virginia Tech Hokies (5-2) – The Hokies still have that bitter taste in their mouths from the Georgia Tech loss, but can still win the ACC with some help.  Ryan Williams averages six yards per carry and has 10 touchdowns already.

17)  Miami Hurricanes (5-2) – The ‘Canes just couldn’t shake Clemson, and eventually lost the game in overtime.  An uncharacteristic defense gave up 410 yards, and Jacory Harris threw three interceptions for Miami.

18)  Ohio State Buckeyes (6-2) – Terrelle Pryor needed a huge game after the Purdue meltdown, and he delivered.  Pryor went 13-25 for 239 yards and two touchdowns.  He also ran for 104 yards and a score in the win over Minnesota.

19)  West Virginia Mountaineers (6-1) - The Mountaineers are quietly playing well since the Auburn loss and are undefeated in the Big East.  They still have Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Rutgers, but first is a trip to South Florida.

20)  Utah Utes (6-1) – Here’s a team that has lost to the only good team it has played, yet sits at #19 at 6-1.  Utah is doing all the right things to win, as they showed in overtime against Air Force.  They still go to Provo and Fort Worth.

21)  South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) – Steve Spurrier is eking out wins, but he’ll tell you that against the SEC, winning is all that matters.  They outgained Vanderbilt by 158 yards and were turnover-free, yet needed a late TD to hold on.

22)  BYU Cougars (6-2) – I don’t think anyone saw that coming.  BYU failed to show up against TCU, leaving them all but out of the Mountain West championship hunt.  Five TCU players scored in a game that was over after the first quarter.

23)  Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) – Despite not having won since Oct. 3, the Badgers are back in the rankings after a few two loss teams fell this week.  For Wisconsin, 10-2 is a legitimate possibility, although this season, who knows?

24) Kansas Jayhawks (5-2) – Two weeks ago they looked like they could challenge for a BCS game.  Now they’re thinking bowl eligibility and maybe a north title after OU blows them out.  Kansas fans should be looking toward basketball.

25)  Central Michigan (7-1) – Why not?  Butch Jones has the Chippewas at 7-1 going into the showdown at Boston College.  They have a win at Michigan State and played Arizona tough in the desert.  They’ve also won seven in a row.


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Categories : Sports

College football rankings – Oct. 19

19 10 2009

Same $***, different week.

That’s about all I can say after finding out that the coaches inexcusably ranked Florida #1 despite a dreadful performance in Gainesville against inferior Arkansas.  They must not know about Alabama, the team with the number one defense in America.  The team that has held four of its past five opponents to 7 points or fewer.  The team with road wins against Kentucky and Ole Miss, a neutral site victory against Virginia Tech, and wins against South Carolina, and that same Arkansas team by 28.  Florida’s only good win has been LSU, and they could still lose three more times.  Point is, it should be the AP guys who have BCS influence.  They got it right.  Again.  The coaches aren’t paying attention.  Good thing I am.  On to the rankings…

1)  Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) – It was foolish of me not to have them #1 last week, but they left no doubt with a dominating 20-6 win over South Carolina.  All of a sudden, Florida can’t score on Arkansas.  How will they score on Alabama?

2)  Florida Gators (6-0) – Gator fans are sending personalized thank you cards to Alex Tejada after he single-handedly kept Florida unbeaten Saturday.  The Razorbacks had plenty of chances, but couldn’t close.  The Hogs recorded six sacks.

3)  Texas Longhorns (6-0) – Here’s another team I’m not sure about.  In a down year for the Big 12, Texas has sleepwalked through its first three games.  Outgained by OU 311-269, the ‘Horns need to figure out what’s wrong with “O” before OSU.

4)  Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0) - The Bearcats were very impressive in a 34-17 win in Tampa.  Ask West Virginia or Kansas about playing in South Florida during the week.  It’s not easy.  A bigger issue for Cincinnti is the health of QB Tony Pike.

5)  Boise State Broncos (6-0) – Boise State has played two pretty bad games in a row, and the BCS is laughing.  They won’t have to feel obligated to put the Broncos in the discussion if they keep winning by seven points with this schedule.

6)  Iowa Hawkeyes (7-0) – I’m sold.  I had this team pegged for three losses by now, but they just keep winning ugly.  They held Wisconsin to 230 yards of offense, controlled the clock and scored 20 unanswered points after falling behind 10-0.

7)  Miami Hurricanes (5-1) – The ‘Canes enjoyed their second breather in a row, cruising to a 27-7 win at Central Florida.  They should have a third cupcake this week with Clemson, but have to go to Wake, UNC and South Florida this year.

8)  LSU Tigers (5-1) – The Tigers enjoyed the week off in preparation for Auburn.  They’ve already beaten three BCS conference schools on the road – all by one possession – and still go to Ole Miss and Alabama this season.  Trouble.

9)  USC Trojans (5-1) – What is the love affair with USC?  Fourth?  Really?  Remember, this is the same team that lost to Washington, a team that is 3-4 now.  I will give them credit for road wins against Ohio State, California and Notre Dame.

10)  Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1) – The loss by Oklahoma leaves Oklahoma State and Texas as the only two unbeaten teams in Big 12 play.  Assuming both take care of business this weekend, it should make for an epic showdown in Stillwater.

11)  Oregon Ducks (5-1) – The Ducks get two weeks to prepare for their trip up north to face Washington.  If they win, then comes a chance at virtually eliminating USC from Rose Bowl contention.  My my, if it wasn’t for that Boise State game…

12)  Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1) – The Iowa loss looks more legit every week.  So does this team’s defense, holding opponents to 7 or fewer in five of seven games.  They still need to win out and get some help if they want to smell roses.

13)  TCU Horned Frogs (6-0) – After taking a few weeks off, TCU finally showed up against Colorado State.  They outgained CSU 499-182 in the 38 point blowout.  The game of the week this week is a Mountain West game as TCU heads to Provo.

14)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-1) - The Jackets put three SEC schools on the schedule this year and finish with 11 straight against BCS conference teams.  The huge win over Virginia Tech put them back in discussion for a BCS bowl.

15)  BYU Cougars (6-1) – Oklahoma and Florida State have been down, so the schedule hasn’t been as impressive as the Cougars would have hoped.  Still, the TCU game Saturday should put them in the national spotlight again.

16)  Houston Cougars (6-1) – It’s hard to believe that a one-loss Conference USA team could be ranked this high just halfway through the season.  But they’ve earned it after playing three BCS conference teams and winning them all.

17)  Kansas Jayhawks (5-1) – Right behind the number one offense in America is number two.  Reesing, Brizcoe and Meier did their part against Colorado, but the defense played really bad again.  It’s a Big 12 loss KU couldn’t afford to have.

18)  Virginia Tech Hokies (4-2) – Um, run defense?  Virginia Tech forgot to bring theirs to Atlanta, giving up 309 yards on the ground to Georgia Tech.  The Hokies’ schedule gets easier as they chase another ACC crown.  UNC is next.

19)  Pittsburgh Panthers (6-1) – Dion Lewis is going to be a Heisman candidate before his college career is over.  The freshman ran for 180 yards and two touchdowns in Pitt’s win at Rutgers.  He is up to third in the nation in rushing.

20)  Ohio State Buckeyes (5-2) – Purdue was just 1-5 on the year before pulling off the Ohio State upset, leaving Illinois has the only Big 12 winless team.  For the Buckeyes, winning out still gives them the conference title and a Rose Bowl berth.

21)  Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2) – Since losing back to back road games in their home state, the Red Raiders have outscored opponents 142-52.  In their first game out of the state, new QB Steven Sheffield ripped the ‘Huskers for three TDs.

22)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-2) – Nebraska got absolutely embarrassed by Texas Tech at home, and failed to take advantage of a Kansas loss in the process.  The normally stout defense allowed 31 points after allowing just 40 all year.

23)  West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) – After the Auburn loss, it didn’t look like the Mountaineers were going to be very good.  But they’ve managed a 5-1 start thanks to Noel Divine’s 6.4 yards per carry.  Nothing but Big East games remain.

24)  Utah Utes (5-1) - I’m still not convinced that this team can play with anyone in the top 25, but they’ve won the games they’re supposed to win.  They have road games against TCU and BYU two of the final three weeks of the season.

25)  South Florida Bulls (5-1) – The Bulls couldn’t get anything going, specifically in the second half, against Cincinnati.  They’ll have plenty of chances to jump right back in the mix with West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Miami still to come.


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Categories : Sports

College football rankings – Oct. 12

12 10 2009

By this point in the season, every team except two have played a bad game.  I’ve had those two teams ranked 1-2 all season.  The AP finally woke up from a five week coma and put Alabama at #2.  It’s a shame that the Tide and Gators can’t play for the national championship because after those two, there is a distinct dropoff in college football.  Penn State, USC, Texas, Cincinnati and Virginia Tech are the top teams in the other five big conferences, but none of them can touch the top two.  Not right now anyway.  So if you want your true national championship game, tune in Dec. 5 when the Gators and Crimson Tide meet at the Georgia Dome.  But just for giggles, and because I do it every week, I’ll rank 23 other teams too.

1)  Florida Gators (5-0) – The predictable Gators didn’t have Tim Tebow at his best Saturday, but that’s why you have a #1 ranked defense, right?  Florida’s “D” gets an “A” in Baton Rouge.  The game in Columbia Nov. 14 could mean a lot.

2)  Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) – I read an article on CBS Sports saying ‘Bama should be #1.  I wouldn’t be able to argue that after the ‘Tide truck Ole Miss in Oxford.  They forced four Jevan Snead picks and rushed for 200+ yards.

3)  Texas Longhorns (5-0) – The defense and special teams outscored the offense in a lackluster home win over a terrible Colorado team.  The ‘Horns had just 46 rushing yards on 25 carries.  Play like that again and OU will win Saturday.

4)  Boise State Broncos (5-0) – They are getting no love from the voters, but they are one of the most talented teams in America.  Kellen Moore is second in the nation in pass efficiency and has 13 TDs.  They travel to Tulsa on Wednesday.

5)  Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) – Tony Pike has completed 66 percent of his passes and is throwing for nearly 300 yards per game.  Their top two rushers are both averaging better than five yards per carry.  My point?  This offense is good.

6)  Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1) – If Alabama ends up being this team’s only loss, then they have a national championship claim.  Since then, they are 5-0 and rolling.  Boston College had no chance as Virginia Tech rolled to a 34-0 halftime lead.

7)  Miami Hurricanes (4-1) – The ‘Canes get the edge over LSU because of wins over Oklahoma and Georgia Tech although the FSU win doesn’t look impressive anymore.  This week was their first breather as they bounced Florida A&M.

8)  LSU Tigers (5-1) – The Tigers couldn’t get anything going against that stout Florida defense, but took advantage of Tebow playing too soon to keep themselves in it.  They can earn a rematch by winning out, including a win in Tuscaloosa.

9)  USC Trojans (4-1) – USC is one of six Pac 10 teams with one loss, and Oregon is undefeated.  Pete Carroll isn’t used to seeing it this bunched up, which should make for an interesting finish.  First up though is a tough trip to South Bend.

10)  Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) – The Bucks jump KU after an impressive victory over an improved Wisconsin team.  The defense and special teams combined for 21 of the 31 points, but Terrelle Pryor went just 5-13 with 87 yards, a TD and a pick.

11)  Kansas Jayhawks (5-0) – It certainly wasn’t pretty against lowly Iowa State.  Kerry Meier caught 16 passes for 142 yards and two touchdowns to help bail out the Jayhawk D, which allowed 512 yards to the Cyclones.  Colorado is next.

12)  Iowa Hawkeyes (6-0) – Give the Hawkeyes credit.  After all, they spoiled my perfect upset prediction streak.  They also beat a very good Michigan team.  Their three remaining away games are Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State.

13)  Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) – The Georgia win doesn’t look impressive anymore, the Rice game was closer than expected, and now OSU nearly loses at Texas A&M.  The banged up Cowboys still have Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

14)  Oregon Ducks (5-1) – Oregon got it done against UCLA Saturday thanks to a kickoff return and an interception return.  It seems the theme of the week was offenses getting outscored by their defenses and special teams.

15)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) – After a stagnant first three quarters, the ‘Husker offense exploded for 27 points in the fourth.  The defense is #13 in the country and has allowed just four touchdowns.  A 4-0 Big 12 start looks likely.

16)  Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1) – The Lions finished their joke of a nonconference schedule by beating FCS team Eastern Illinois by 49.  Next week they play their sixth home game of the season already, against Minnesota.

17)  TCU Horned Frogs (5-0) – I grow less impressed with this team every week.  Last week it was a four point win at Clemson.  This week it’s a three point win at Air Force.  I will give them credit for three road wins though.

18)  BYU Cougars (5-1) – Harvey Unga was at it again Saturday, scoring three more touchdowns and rushing for 149 yards.  Unga has rushed for 494 yards and eight touchdowns on the year, averaging 6.8 yards per carry.  Heisman?

19)  Oklahoma Sooners (3-2) – Sam Bradford returned Saturday against Baylor, and Bob Stoops didn’t hesitate to unleash the Heisman winner.  He threw 49 passes, completing 27, for 389 yards and a touchdown in the victory.

20)  Houston Cougars (4-1) – After the Cougars lost to UTEP, the AP and coaches took them out of the rankings.  I left them in, and now they are back in both major polls after beating their third BCS conference team of the year.

21)  South Florida Bulls (5-0) - Both the Bulls and Bearcats have had 12 days to prepare for the Thursday showdown in Tampa.  After Cincinnati, South Florida’s schedule stays tough, as they get Pittsburgh and West Virginia.

22)  Auburn Tigers (5-1) – Despite getting crushed by Arkansas, the Tigers have wins over Mississippi State, West Virginia and Tennessee.  Ben Tate and Onterio McCalebb both average more than six yards per carry and have combined for 1000.

23)  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) – They may not be great teams, but the Irish have played four BCS conference teams already this year, and have won three.  They got a bye at a good time – they’re about to play a great BCS team.

24)  South Carolina Gamecocks (5-1) – Georgia game aside, South Carolina is finally winning all the close ones.  They’re the only other team with a prayer to win the SEC East, but first they’ll have to go to Alabama and win on Saturday.

25)  Pittsburgh Panthers (5-1) – The Pitt team today is not the same Pitt team we saw in the first three games.  Dion Lewis has slowed down, and the defense is giving up too many points.  The Big East is wide open, and Rutgers is next.


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Categories : Uncategorized

College football rankings – Oct. 5

5 10 2009

Although I got my upset correct for the fifth straight week, I dropped the ball on LSU/Georgia.  Is it time I give the Tigers some credit?  They are 5-0 with four BCS wins, including an impressive victory over Georgia in which they allowed just 13 points to a team that had put up 93 in two games against the SEC before Saturday.  They move up on my list, but will likely drop back next week because…

1)  Florida Gators (4-0) – …the Gators are coming to town.  Tim Tebow still hasn’t been cleared to practice or play, but I think the Gators can still win the game on defense alone.  Win this and it should be a red carpet to the SEC title game.

2)  Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) – The AP writers and coaches still have Texas at #2, and I don’t know why.  Alabama was impressive yet again in a 38-20 drubbing of Kentucky.  Ole Miss will be a stiff test Saturday in Oxford.

3)  Texas Longhorns (4-0) – A tuneup game against woeful Colorado is a great way for Texas to open the Big 12 season before the Red River Shootout.  With other teams in the conference falling like dominos, the strength of schedule looks weak.

4)  Boise State Broncos (5-0) – It wasn’t the Broncos we had been used to seeing, but rain will slow down any offense.  Still, an 18 point home win over an FCS team is not what this program needs if it wants to get its title shot.

5)  LSU Tigers (5-0) – The Tigers faced their first true test of the season and passed with flying colors, holding Georgia to just 45 rushing yards and controlling the clock.  Maybe I was wrong about them.  Or maybe Florida will prove me right.

6)  Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) - Moving the Bearcats down is not a penalty; they are just the victim of a weak schedule.  Jacob Ramsey rushed for 103 yards and three touchdowns against Miami-Ohio.  Undefeated South Florida is next.

7)  Virginia Tech Hokies (4-1) – The Hokies survived a major scare in Durham Saturday, escaping with a 34-26 win over Duke.  The ‘Devils found a way to score more points against Tech (26) than Nebraska and Miami combined (22).

8)  Miami Hurricanes (3-1) – Be honest and tell me if you really thought Miami would get through the opening month gauntlet 3-1.  Wins over Florida State, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma make a pretty impressive resume.

9)  USC Trojans (4-1) – They may be the best one loss team in the nation.  Or maybe California is just bad.  Either way, the Trojans looked good in a 30-3 route of the Bears in Berkeley.  Next is a bye week before going to Notre Dame.

10)  Kansas Jayhawks (4-0) – The offense is firing on all cylinders, but Mark Mangino probably wants to improve the D.  They have two gimme games to do so with Iowa State and Colorado as the first two conference opponents.

11)  Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1) – They put the brakes on in Bloomington and still came away with a 33-14 win.  Terrelle Pryor threw three TDs and ran for one.  If they get by Wisconsin Saturday, they should be 8-1 going to Happy Valley.

12)  Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) – Oklahoma State has time to make up some ground in the rankings with the Longhorns and Sooners still on the schedule.  But first it’s a trip to College Station to face always pesky Texas A&M.

13)  TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) – TCU rocked SMU 39-14 Saturday.  The defense is in the top 10 in the nation again.  Eight different TCU players ran the ball in the game, making quarterback Andy Dalton’s life very easy.

14)  Iowa Hawkeyes (5-0) – Iowa’s huge win over Penn State was nearly followed by a catastrophic loss to Arkansas State.  Nevertheless, they’re 5-0 headed into a tough stretch against Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State.

15)  Oregon Ducks (4-1) – The Ducks are trying to make the disaster in Boise seem like a distant memory.  Oregon ran for 318 yards and six touchdowns in a 52-6 route over Wazzu.  LeGarrette Blount may be reinstated in time for USC.

16)  Penn State Nittany Lions (4-1) – The Lions rebounded from the Iowa loss by spanking Illinois in Champaign.  Unlike previous games, the offense showed up in the fourth quarter, scoring 21 points to put the game away.

17)  BYU Cougars (4-1) – For the second straight week, Harvey Unga had a monster game.  This week he ran for 118 yards and a touchdown as BYU put the clamps down on Utah State.  Next up is a trip to Vegas to face UNLV.

18)  Oklahoma Sooners (2-2) – What a disappointment this season has been for OU and its fans.  Starting #3 in the country, the Sooners are already out of national championship contention, although a third straight Big 12 title is still possible.

19)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1) – Nebraska leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing just seven points per game.  They are also averaging 40.  Combine the two and it’s a dangerous combination.  Big 12 play kicks off Thursday.

20)  Auburn Tigers (5-0) – It’s always tough to win at Tennessee, but Auburn did just that to improve to 5-0 on the year.  The next four games will challenge the Tigers, starting with Saturday’s road test at Arkansas.

21)  Mississippi Rebels (3-1) – Ole Miss rebounded from a tough loss in Columbia with a solid defensive performance in a 23-7 win at Vanderbilt, but Jevan Snead threw three more picks.  He’ll have to step up Saturday when “Bama rolls in.

22)  Houston Cougars (3-1) – Houston gave up 58 points against UTEP.  That won’t win any games.  To make matters worse people probably looked at Case Keenum’s numbers (51-76, 535 yards, 5 TDs) and thought Houston won the game.

23)  Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) – Wisconsin is winning ugly.  What’s new?  The fact is, they are 5-0 and seem to have found offense.  John Clay is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has rushed for seven touchdowns already.  Ohio State is next.

24)  South Florida Bulls (5-0) – South Florida hasn’t played anybody yet, but they have five wins and look confident.  The one-two punch of B.J. Daniels and Moise Plancher are tearing up the ground game.  They host Cincinnati Oct. 15

25)  Missouri Tigers (4-0) – Like South Florida, the Tigers haven’t had a schedule yet.  But like South Florida, they’re undefeated and gaining confidence.  Blaine Gabbert is fourth in the nation in pass efficiency at 168.67.


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Categories : Sports

Only Texas can save Big 12

5 10 2009

The conference that was supposed to rival the SEC for nation’s best has taken a bigger dive than   after an all too disappointing nonconference season.  Only three teams made it through undefeated, and the conference came up on the wrong end of just about every big game it played in.

There’s no more fitting place to start than in Norman.  The Sooners are 2-2 after going 12-1 and playing for a national championship.  Both losses came by one point on national television.  One against a Mountain West school (BYU) and the other against an ACC school (Miami).  Granted they were ranked, away from Norman and without the Heisman winner.  Still, two big games, and two losses for the Big 12.

Nebraska had Virginia Tech on the ropes in Blacksburg before the blown coverage of the century bailed the Hokies out.  Texas Tech and Oklahoma State both lost to a Conference USA school (Houston), who just gave up 58 in a loss to UTEP.  Texas A&M got steamrolled by Arkansas, Colorado lost to West Virginia…and Toledo…and Colorado State.  Iowa State got trucked by in-state rival Iowa.  Kansas State lost to UCLA.  Baylor lost to UConn. Texas didn’t even schedule a game against a BCS opponent.

In fact, the conference as a whole is just 4-6 against nonconference BCS opponents this season.  No one outside of the Longhorns have a prayer of making the national championship game, and recruits can’t be excited by these games.

Meanwhile, the Big Ten has two undefeated teams, and neither are from Happy Valley or Columbus.  The ACC has two top 11 teams, and neither is Florida State.  The Big East has a 5-0 team in South Florida.  And the SEC has three of the top four teams in the polls.

Other conferences are thriving at the expense of the Big 12.  A conference with such high expectations has failed to live up to them.  Conference play kicks in full swing next week, and only Texas can save this conference now.  Winning out gives them a shot at Florida, and a shot to give this conference some respectability.


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Categories : Sports

College football rankings – Sept. 28

28 09 2009

In a weekend full of upsets, who made out the best?  That’s easy, it’s Boise State.  The Broncos are now one Texas slip away from controlling their own destiny to Pasadena, and I don’t mean for the Rose Bowl.  The Broncos are #5 in the county (higher than that in the poll that matters), and they are guaranteed to pass two of the three SEC teams ahead of them as long as they keep winning.  LSU has Georgia and Florida next.  ‘Bama is losing to Florida in the SEC championship if not sooner.  Texas still has the Red River Shootout, a trip to Stillwater and Kansas twice.  The Broncos could turn into the biggest Sooner fans in the country come Oct. 17.  Meanwhile, Chris Peterson is making everyone on the team write personalized thank you letters to the Penn State offense for leaving Happy Valley after the first play.  On to the rankings…

1)  Florida Gators (4-0) – What’s bigger, #4, 5 and 6 all losing in one weekend, or Tim Tebow getting hurt?  I’ll go with the first one.  Florida doesn’t need Tebow to run the table, although the bye week comes at a perfect time.

2)  Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) – Saban’s boys look good.  Arkansas put up 41 on Georgia, then did squat against the Tide.  Greg McElroy had three more touchdown passes.  The Virginia Tech win looks huge now.

3)  Texas Longhorns (4-0) – For the first time this season, the ‘Horns put together two good halves of football.  Two really good halves.  The defense gave up just 53 yards and zero points.  No BCS nonconference opponents could hurt them.

4)  Boise State Broncos (4-0) – How good does that win over Oregon look now?  The Broncos have steamrolled everyone since then, and have put themselves in legitimate title contention.  Could this be the year a non-BCS school goes?

5)  Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0) – They aren’t the same ‘Cats we saw put up 115 points the first two weeks, but Cincinnati is winning, and winning against legit opponents.  Fresno is no joke, and they won at Rutgers and at Oregon State.

6)  Oklahoma Sooners (2-1) – I said I wouldn’t move any teams with bye weeks up or down the first four weeks.  Otherwise OU would be #5.  No word on whether Bradford will go against Miami, but it won’t matter.  OU will roll either way.

7)  Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1) – I picked Virginia Tech to beat Miami, but not by 24.  Defensively, the Hokies held Miami to 209 yards, while offensively, they ran it down Miami’s throats.  The rain played right into Va Tech’s style.

8)  Houston Cougars (3-0) – The Cougars have done it again.  For the second time in as many games, Houston knocked off a legitimate Big 12 opponent.  The offense racked up 579 yards against Texas Tech, and Case Keenum threw for 435.

9)  LSU Tigers (4-0) – This team is disgusting.  Another opponent blunder keeps LSU undefeated, but for how long.  They beat Mississippi State by four, Washington by eight and Vanderbilt by 14.  Georgia and Florida are next.

10)  California Golden Bears (3-1) – The Bears were absolutely embarrassed by Oregon.  They were outgained 524-207 in total offense, and Jahvid Best had 16 carries for just 55 yards.  Impressive early season wins keeps them in the top 10.

11)  USC Trojans (3-1) – Matt Barkley’s first game back was pretty good.  He went 13 for 22 for 247 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  But after a 20-0 first quarter, they didn’t do anything against a bad Wazzu team.

12)  Kansas Jayhawks (4-0) – The offense is really good and can score on anyone.  Southern Mississippi is a good team and played tough, but KU had enough to end SMU’s eight game win streak – the second longest in the nation.

13)  Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1) – The Buckeyes haven’t given up points since USC’s winning drive on Sept. 12.  The defense forced three Juice Williams interceptions Saturday in the shutout.  Final score against Penn State: 4-2.

14)  Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) – Their only loss was to a good Houston team, and they have a nice win over Georgia, but fans were expecting more from Zac Robinson.  He has just 791 yards and six touchdowns through four games.

15)  Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) – The ‘Dogs have had one of the toughest schedules in the country, and it doesn’t get any easier with LSU in town Saturday.  They’ve played four BCS schools already, and have seven more on the schedule.

16)  Iowa Hawkeyes (4-0) – I’ve been saying Iowa is overrated all year, but after the performance at Penn State, I may have to shut up.  If not for that one point win over Northern Iowa, they may be in my top 10.  They go to the Shoe Nov. 14.

17)  TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) – TCU stayed undefeated – barely – at Clemson this week.  That’s two wins at ACC schools.  The defense looked good again despite not recording a sack for the first time in 27 games.  Things get easier until BYU.

18)  Oregon Ducks (3-1) – The Ducks strung together a very impressive nonconference schedule with Boise State, Purdue and Utah.  Smacking Cal by 39 is a huge boost.  Jeremiah Masoli might be off the hook for now.

19)  Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1) – They are still the favorites to win the Big 10, but a national title is dim after a double digit home loss to Iowa.  The team went to sleep after scoring on the first play, had a punt blocked and gave up a safety.

20)  Miami Hurricanes (2-1) – The rain really hampered Miami’s ability to do anything offensively.  They are not a running team and became predictable when the rain started falling.  It doesn’t get any easier with the Sooners next week.

21)  BYU Cougars (3-1) – Harvey Unga had three rushing touchdowns from inside the five as BYU got back to business in a win over Colorado State.  The Cougars can still sneak into the BCS picture with some help and an 8-0 finish.

22)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1) – This is a scary team, especially defensively.  That Virginia Tech team that put up 31 in the rain against Miami needed a miracle to down the Huskers.  They get a bye week before Big 12 play begins.

23)  Mississippi Rebels (2-1) – I’m not sure what all the fuss about Jevan Snead is.  He has completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes and has just six touchdowns against three unranked teams.  Alabama and LSU are both at home.

24)  Auburn Tigers (4-0) – Gene Chizik has Auburn playing well, though they havent left home yet.  They go to Tennessee and Arkansas thev next two weeks, and after that we’ll have a better idea of how good they are.

25)  Michigan Wolverines (4-0) – Rich Rodriguez has this team off to a 4-0 start – they were just 3-9 last year.  However, an embarrassing near-loss to Indiana should have Michigan fans worried.  The Wolverines travel to East Lansing next.


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Categories : Sports

College football picks – Miami’s streak ends

24 09 2009

Murderers’ row continues for Miami this week with a road trip to Blacksburg, Va. to face the Hokies.  Lost with Miami’s schedule is the fact that Virginia Tech has had a tough road as well, hosting ranked Nebraska last week and opening the season in Atlanta against #3 Alabama.  Don’t think Miami is going to walk all over them.  But I must not give too much away… For the third straight week, I went 4-2 with my picks, so I really have no room to brag.  But I am 3-0 with my upset picks, so if you’re looking for good gambler’s odds, keep reading.

#5 Penn State Nittany Lions 35, Iowa Hawkeyes 0

Texas Tech Red Raiders 37, #17 Houston Cougars 30

#6 California Golden Bears 27, Oregon Ducks 18

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 27, #22 North Carolina Tar Heels 21

#11 Virginia Tech Hokies 21, #9 Miami Hurricanes 17

UPSET SPECIAL:  South Carolina Gamecocks 33, #4 Mississippi Rebels 31

Last week:  4-2
Overall:  12-6
Upsets:  3-0


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Categories : Sports

College football rankings – Sept. 21

21 09 2009

Washington should not be in the AP Top 25.  But if you’re still deciding between the AP and Coaches Poll, please choose AP.  The coaches still have USC in the top ten, Georgia as high as #17, North Carolina right behind them at #18, Missouri at #21 and Florida State at #25.  If you want a reason to complain about the BCS, look no further than these goons who somehow get to have a third of the influence in those rankings.  If you want an accurate poll, keep reading.

1)  Florida Gators (3-0) – Okay, so the Gators looked mortal on Saturday and now everyone is up in arms about their legitimacy.  So what if they only won by 10?  It’s the SEC, everyone comes to play.  Their first road game is this week.

2)  Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) – The Tide rocked North Texas 53-7, but I’m a little concerned because they only rushed for 260 yards.  Were they playing with Swine Flu?  All jokes aside, this team looks good.  SEC play starts Saturday.

3)  Texas Longhorns (3-0) – Colt McCoy looked terrible for much of the game, but the bottom line is a win is a win, especially revenge against Texas Tech.  The offense made some halftime adjustments, and the defense was good enough.

4)  Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) – The best defense in the nation strikes again.  For the third straight week, the D gave up single digits.  I hate their schedule though.  Four non-league games, all at home against weak teams.  Gross.

5)  California Golden Bears (3-0) – With USC’s loss, Cal takes a stranglehold on the Pac 10.  The offense wasn’t nearly as dominant in Minnesota, but they did enough to win.  Their first three Pac 10 games are against Oregon, USC and UCLA.

6)  Oklahoma Sooners (2-1) – This is the best 2-1 team in the history of college football.  It looks more and more like the Sooners will be fine with Landry Jones.  They’ve outscored their last two opponents 109-0, and have a bye before Miami.

7)  Boise State Broncos (3-0) – I think it’s safe to say they’ve found their offense is back, averaging 49.5 points per game since the ugly Oregon win.  But where was the defense in Fresno?  The Bulldogs put up 507 yards and 34 points.

8)  Mississippi Rebels (2-0) – They may have played well this week, but it was Southeastern Louisiana, so don’t think I’ve forgotten about the Memphis game.  We know they can score, but can the defense hold up against an SEC opponent?

9)  Virginia Tech Hokies (2-1) – Virginia Tech was outplayed by a better Nebraska team and got bailed out by blown coverage.  I don’t think they can hang with most top 25 teams, but for now they have to be here because of the schedule.

10)  LSU Tigers (3-0) - LSU jumps Oklahoma State simply because they’re undefeated, but there’s just something not right about them.  They aren’t explosive offensively, yet they’re winning.  They also beat the team that beat USC.

11)  Cincinnati Bearcats (3-0) – The offense didn’t look nearly as explosive, but they were able to win on the road in the Pac 10.  Tony Pike had another nice day, going 31-49 for 332 yards, and the defense had another strong showing.

12)  USC Trojans (2-1) – I really hate putting USC here because they should be lower after that inexcusable loss.  But they can’t be behind the Buckeyes yet because they won that game, and we all know they’re out for blood now.

13)  Houston Cougars (3-0) – Houston has to love the scheduling gods.  After winning at Oklahoma State, the Cougars got the benefit of a bye week while their opponent this week, Texas Tech, had to go to Austin.

14)  Ohio State Buckeyes (2-1) – The Bucks played their first complete game of the season in a 38-0 route at Toledo.  The USC loss looks worse now, but they should be safe until the Nov. 7 showdown in Happy Valley.

15)  Miami Hurricanes (2-0) – Miami impresses me more every week.  Two wins over two ranked opponents have Miami climbing fast.  Jacory Harris and company better be ready.  Virginia Tech is next in Blacksburg.

16)  Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-1) – If teams are supposed to get better every week, Mike Gundy should be furious.  His Cowboys looked good beating Georgia, then lost to Houston and sleepwalked through the Rice game.

17)  Kansas Jayhawks (3-0) – The Jayhawks keep rocking, this time overcoming a slow start to put away Duke.  Todd Reesing has 806 yards with six touchdowns, and Dezmon Briscoe is averaging 20 yards per catch.

18)  TCU Horned Frogs (2-0) – All of a sudden TCU has the Mountain West bullseye after Utah and BYU fell last week.  The Horned Frogs rushed for seven touchdowns against Texas State-San Macros.

19)  Georgia Bulldogs (2-1) – The Bulldogs looked terrible offensively against Oklahoma State, then decided to light off the fireworks en route to a 2-0 SEC start.  The latest victim was Arkansas, who gave up 530 yards to the ‘Dogs.

20)  North Carolina Tar Heels (3-0) – It took a late fourth quarter surge for North Carolina to pull away from East Carolina.  It gets tougher for the ‘Heels now, starting this week at Georgia Tech.

21)  BYU Cougars (2-1) – This team surprised me the most in week three.  As good as the defense has played all year, BYU let an inept FSU team walk into Provo and make them look like a joke.  Bye, bye, BCS.

22)  Pittsburgh Panthers (3-0) – The Pitt Panthers got their third win, but Navy didn’t make it easy.  Nevertheless, Pitt’s 3-0 and playing well.  Dion Lewis is sixth in the nation in rushing at 132 yards per game.

23)  Michigan Wolverines (3-0) – Rich Rod’s team is one win away from eclipsing last season’s win total.  The Wolverines have one more tuneup game this week before two tough road games in East Lansing and Iowa City.

24)  Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-1) – Nebraska dominated Virginia Tech for 59 minutes, then forgot that they were supposed to actually cover Va Tech receivers.  Still, this team is dangerous.  Bo Pelini has them playing Husker football again.

25)  Auburn Tigers (3-0) – This spot is wide open in my rankings, but for now I’m giving it to the Tigers.  Auburn lit up West Virginia for 41 points, and they are one of four SEC West teams without a loss.


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Categories : Sports

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