Conference tournament predictions

9 03 2010

It’s Championship Week, and my staff had so much fun making picks all year.  Now they get a bonus by having the opportunity to fill out the major conference tournament brackets.  The point system is as follows:

Big East opening round win = .5
First round win = 1
Quarterfinal win = 2
Semifinal win = 3
Championship win = 4

Click on the corresponding tournament under the person’s name to see his or her picks for that conference.

Jaryd’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Kyle’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Molly’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Blake’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Carl’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Brendan’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament





Bubble growing with one month to go

15 02 2010

Four weeks from yesterday is Selection Sunday, the college sports world’s national holiday.  To nobody’s surprise, the bubble seems to be growing as conference play heats up.  Below is the complete list of who’s in and who’s out (at large berths only) if the tournament started on Valentine’s Day.  For now, I’m just saying that the team with the best conference record in each conference is automatically in, which is why you won’t see them on the list of “locks.”  In cases where teams were tied for the conference lead, I gave the team with the higher RPI the bid.

At large locks:

ACC (3)
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
Maryland

Atlantic 10 (3)
Temple
Charlotte
Xavier

Big East (4)
Syracuse
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Georgetown

Big Ten (3)
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin

Big 12 (4)
Kansas State
Texas A&M
Baylor
Texas

Conference USA (1)
UAB

Mountain West (2)
BYU
UNLV

SEC (2)
Vanderbilt
Tennessee

West Coast (1)
St. Mary’s

This leaves 11 at large bids up for grabs.  Below is who takes them (in order) as of tonight.

1)  Rhode Island Rams – That’s right.  The strongest bubble team is the Rams.  With an RPI of 21, the 19-5 Rams have wins over Dayton and Oklahoma State, and no terrible losses.  The Atlantic 10 is better than the Pac 10, SEC and Mountain West, at least in the top half.

2)  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Despite the recent slide, the Jackets have the best strength of schedule in the ACC after Duke, and still only seven losses.  They have five wins against the RPI top 40, and if you’re wondering how deep the ACC is, know that Tech is currently in eighth.

3)  Clemson Tigers – Clemson’s resumé is nearly identical to Georgia Tech’s.  The Tigers’ strength of schedule ranks 31, and they are #30 in the RPI.  They sit sixth in the ACC with nonconference wins over Butler and South Carolina, as well as wins over Maryland and Florida State.

4)  Dayton Flyers – Another A-10 team deserving of a spot is the Flyers.  They are 17-7 but have slipped to seventh in the conference at 6-4.  They beat Georgia Tech and Old Dominion out of conference, and Xavier in conference.  The RPI ranking is #32, and the strength of schedule is #30.

5)  Missouri Tigers – The nonconference schedule was not great, but wins over Old Dominion and Illinois are looking better this month than they did in January.  Quality losses include Richmond, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Baylor and Texas A&M.  The Tigers are in sixth in the nation’s best conference.

6)  Marquette Golden Eagles – Marquette has been competitive in every game this season, and the worst is behind them.  However, an RPI ranked #56 and a strength of schedule ranked #54 are worrisome, but they have worked themselves into a situation where they could finish fourth in the Big East.

7)  Florida State Seminoles – FSU lacks the big win, but does have enough quality victories and few enough bad losses to warrant a tournament berth.  Losing to Maryland twice hurt, but they did beat Georgia Tech twice to make up for it.  They are tied for sixth in the ACC.

8)  Oklahoma State Cowboys – If the Cowboys’ worst loss is at Oklahoma, count them in.  The Pokes have wins over Kansas State and Texas A&M, no bad losses and a strength of schedule ranked #44.  The RPI is in the top 40, and they are 5-5 in the Big 12.

9)  Mississippi Rebels – Ole Miss has done just enough to squeeze into the field, the biggest asset being a win over Kansas State.  Four of the Rebels’ seven losses are to teams in the top 20 in RPI.  The strength of schedule isn’t eye-opening, but outside of Arkansas, they’ve won all the games they’re supposed to win.

10)  Illinois Fighting Illini – The Illini were a lock until the Ohio State blowout.  Even so, they’re winning the games they should win in the Big Ten, and playing well at the right time.  Wins over Michigan State and Purdue were a big boost for the team currently in fourth in the Big Ten.

11)  Florida Gators – They’ve played a tough schedule and have only two losses against teams with an RPI below 27.  Their biggest problem is lack of quality wins.  Despite that, I’m still taking the Gators as my last team in with only eight losses over a Louisville team with three bad losses and nine overall losses.

On the outside looking in:

Louisville
Texas Tech
Wichita State
Mississippi State
San Diego State
Virginia
Cincinnati
Washington
South Carolina





A lesson to all college sports fans

9 02 2010

My frustration has boiled over.

Enough for me to write about it anyway.

To start from the beginning would be to go back a long way, so I’ll just tell you what happened yesterday.  I was at the library (University of Missouri) when I ran into a friend I hadn’t seen in quite some time.  We talked about our semesters, graduation, the weather and…per usual when I’m involved in a conversation…sports.  I asked him, who I will refrain from naming for his own embarrassment, who he thought would win the Kansas/Texas game.  He said Texas.

Dumb.  But I was the guy who said the Colts would win the Super Bowl, so I won’t fault him for a wrong pick.  It was what came next that had me really peeved.

“I don’t ever want Kansas to win.  I hope they lose every game.”

As a Missouri student and fan, he has blindly been led to believe that the most educated college sports fans are ones who hate Kansas.  Fine.  Hate Kansas.  But if you’re a Missouri fan, don’t ever root for KU to lose.  Ever.

This kid considers himself educated.  I just had to walk away.

He’s not the only one.  When Kansas loss to Tennessee, I immediately logged onto Facebook to see a barrage of status updates from my friends and classmates:

“KU sucks.”

“Rock-chalk chickenhawk”

“Kansas is overrrated.”

Joe Schmoe is no longer listed as single.

Okay, so I didn’t really care about that last one, but the first three were quite annoying coming from Tiger fans.

Here’s a lesson to all college sports fans: hate whoever you want, but want your conference opponents to win (no, I don’t get paid for my brilliance).

In college sports, strength of schedule means everything.  If your conference opponents are losing, your favorite team is getting weaker without even playing a game.  In Missouri’s case, every Kansas loss hurts.  The Tigers play the Jayhawks twice in basketball every season.  And every season, I want Kansas to be ranked number one going into those games.  Why?  Because beating an undefeated, top ranked team carries a lot more weight than beating an unranked bubble team.

Same goes for football.  In 2007, I couldn’t believe all the idiots on Missouri’s campus who wanted Kansas to lose a football game.  A golden storyline was being written every week when overachieving KU started 11-0.  While nearly everyone else wanted the Jayhawks to stop flying, I recognized this for what it was – an opportunity of a lifetime for Tigers football.  Undefeated Kansas vs one-loss Missouri on the last day of the regular season, playing for the Big 12 North championship, a chance to play in the Big 12 championship game, and national title hopes still very much alive for the winner.  Not to mention a rivalry game, primetime on ABC, and with College Gameday at the neutral Arrowhead Stadium.  But I guess all that didn’t mean anything for those Tiger fans who were rooting for a Jayhawk loss prior to the Missouri game.  One Kansas loss would have destroyed that moment.  Instead, it was the Tigers who boosted up to number one by beating the number two Jayhawks.

Had Kansas not come into that game unbeaten, who knows if the Tigers would have leaped West Virginia.  One thing is for sure – the game got an enormous amount of publicity, propelled both schools’ football programs, and likely lured at least a recruit or two away from a Texas school to come play in Columbia.  And it was because the team Missouri beat was undefeated.

The nonconference part of the schedule in any sport is the part where every Tiger fan should be rooting for all Big 12 teams, including Kansas, to go undefeated.  Just like every Auburn fan should be rooting for the SEC, and every Butler fan should root for the Horizon League.  In conference play, it all depends on standings, but generally you want the good teams to beat the bad ones so that the matchups with the good teams mean more.

Highly anticipated matchups leads to high attendance, which leads to money.  More money means more opportunity to improve facilities, which leads to better performance.  Better performance leads to more TV time, which in turn creates more exposure.  More exposure leads to better recruiting, which leads to better performance.  Connect the dots any way you’d like.  Just know that there is no justification for rooting against a rival whom your team is going to play, especially against someone whom your team won’t play.

Missouri fans say “but it’s Kansas.  We hate them.  They’re our rivals.”  True.  True.  And true.  They are your rivals, and you may hate them.  But rooting against them is stupid.  It only hurts Missouri.

In professional sports, it’s the opposite.  Hate who you want and root for them to lose.  In pro sports, winning is the only thing that matters.  Quality wins and strength of schedule means nada.  Red Sox fans want the Yankees to go 0-162, and that’s perfectly fine.  But those same Bostonians better be rooting for Notre Dame to win every game so the Boston College/Notre Dame game means more.

So Missouri fans, if you want to root against Kansas because it makes you feel good, then go for it.  Call yourselves true fans.  Call yourselves passionate.

Just please don’t call yourselves educated.





Seminoles on right track in ACC

4 02 2010

Yesterday was National Signing Day, also known as the biggest non-gameday in college football.  While Texas, Oklahoma and…well…the entire SEC gobbled up a good chunk of the nation’s talent, one team hung below the radar, yet emerged with a better than expected class that should help them compete in an otherwise weak conference.

The team?  Florida State.

Jimbo Fisher has a dynamite recruiting class in his first season as head coach following Bobby Bowden’s retirement.  After a half-dozen years of mediocracy, the Seminoles should expect to not only win the ACC in 2010, but maybe contend for a national title.

I’m serious.

The ‘Noles have the schedule to contend even with a loss.  The Florida game is in Tallahassee, as is the BYU game.  The toughest nonconference game may be a trip to Norman, but the Sooners are down this year.  Every ACC game is winnable.  Especially with this class.

Fisher reeled in 14 defensive players to help improve a defense that has been on a steady decline since the 2005 ACC Championship season. Linebacker Christian Jones is a five-star recruit and a pass-blocker’s nightmare.  Cornerback Lamarcus Joyner is a speed demon who can light up a receiver in the open field.  Together, they are the best two recruits in the state, and Fisher got both to come to Tallahassee instead of Gainesville.  Jeff Luc is a quick and well-built inside linebacker that will also improve the defense against the short passing game.

The Seminoles don’t have much to add offensively but did get two stellar receivers in Kenny Shaw and Christian Green, keeping in line with its history of recruiting tall, athletic receivers.

ESPN ranked Florida State’s recruiting class #6.  They are #10 on Rivals.com and #16 on MaxPreps.  All three rankings have the ‘Noles leading the ACC, with Clemson the most popular second choice.

If these freshmen can get acquainted right away, look for Florida State to be the sleeper team of 2010.





Government wasting time with BCS

31 01 2010

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) – Utah is the man you may know best as the senator who is trying to persuade the U.S. Government to take legal action against the BCS – the system used to determine college football’s national champion.  You may also be interested to know that the Justice Department is now looking into whether the system violates antitrust laws.

Ridiculous, I know.

First of all, let me give you some information about Hatch.  He’s a Utah state Senator.  Hmm…I do remember a college football team that went 13-0 just last year but didn’t play in the BCS National Championship game.  Hatch couldn’t possibly be lobbying on behalf of his own state’s university, could he?

Actually, yes.

I bet you don’t know that Hatch has done this before.  The IRS mistakenly released a confidential tax filing showing that pharmaceutical companies and the pharmaceutical industry’s lobbying group wrote $172,500 in checks to the Utah Families Foundation.  What is the Utah Families Foundation, you ask?  It’s the charity that Hatch helped start, and the same charity that has filed taxes illegally for almost 10 years, according to the Washington Times.

Oops.

Now is an appropriate time to also point out that the industries main lobbying group also paid Hatch’s son Scott to be its lobbyist in Washington D.C.

Now, it appears as though Hatch wants money again – this time on behalf of the University of Utah.  After all, he didn’t speak up when Boise State went undefeated in 2006, or when Hawaii ran the table in 2007, or when TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State were perfect in 2009.  But as long as Utah can grab a few extra bucks, it’s all good.

Sounds like an honest guy to me.

But for those of us who like the BCS system, we need not worry.  Hatch will probably be supporting the system by the end of the week.  That is, if his actions are anything like his stance on polygamy, where he first supported polygamists, then was later on record condoning it. He flip-flopped on the issue.  I call that the “classic John Kerry move.”

So if all of you hopeless playoff optimists want to trust this guy to bring a “December/January/in general” Madness to college football, go ahead.  I’ll continue to have my doubts.

So now the Justice Department wants to see if the system violates antitrust laws.  Well, as far as I can tell, there is competition.  Some competition (the SEC), is just worlds better than other competition (Mountain West, WAC).

Hey Justice Department – I have a law you can investigate.  How about the “we’re only undefeated because Tulsa dropped a wide open pass” law.  Or the “we know we have a week conference schedule, but we still schedule division 1-AA teams to come play us at home, then only beat them by 18 points” law.  Oh, and look into the “we gave up 35 points against Louisiana Tech, 34 against Fresno State and 33 against Nevada, but we know we could hold Florida, Alabama and Texas to single digits” law.  Yes, I’m talking about the 2009 Boise State team, the only other unbeaten team besides Alabama.

The key for these teams is scheduling four very difficult games out of conference, knowing you should get eight wins in the conference.  Then maybe they’ll have a chance to play for a championship.  A lack of antitrust laws didn’t keep the Broncos, Warriors, Bearcats, Horned Frogs or anyone else from reaching the title game.  Poor scheduling, and poor play even in some of the wins kept them out.

If you’re happy with the Justice Department looking into this, then you must not care about the war that Obama refuses to get us out of, the bailout that is putting the country further in debt or the inevitable tax increases to come.  If this is such a serious issue, then why hasn’t it already been addressed?  If the BCS was illegal, it could not have possibly lasted this long.

Does the regular season mean anything?  According to Hatch, the answer is no.  A playoff system likely means 9-3 teams have a chance to win it all.  And how would the seeds be determined?  I’m guessing they would use…ah…the BCS rankings.  I can see it now: the playoff system takes the teams ranked 1-8, then a senator from the state the school ranked #9 is from writes a letter to Congress saying it’s not fair.  Then the playoff expands, as it does in every other sport, and all of a sudden teams are playing games during finals week, on Christmas Day, in January once classes start and on into February, where the championship is played on Valentine’s Day.

Sounds good to me.

Not.





Turner gives Buckeyes bracket boost

20 01 2010

IMPORTANT: This is based on games played through Jan. 19.  If the tournament started Jan. 20, this is what my bracket would look like.

Last four in:  Arizona State, Old Dominion, Texas A&M, Maryland
First four out:  Virginia Tech, Marquette, Oklahoma State, San Diego State

Kentucky remains #1 overall.  They are now the last remaining unbeaten team in division 1.

Texas is still a one seed despite the loss to Kansas State.  The Longhorns have a better strength of schedule than Kansas, as well as a more legitimate loss.

Despite Kansas State’s win over Texas, the schedule, as well as the loss to unranked Missouri, are not impressive enough to push them into a #2 spot yet.

Purdue takes another dip after the Northwestern loss, though they rebounded nicely with a tough win at Illinois.

Georgia Tech jumps to a #5 seed.  The Yellow Jackets now have wins over Duke, North Carolina and Clemson in the ACC.  Also making big jumps this week were Ohio State and Vanderbilt.

Now in as conference champions are Campbell and Western Kentucky, replacing East Tennessee State and Denver.

Major conference breakdown:

ACC:  7
Big 12:  6
Big East:  6
SEC: 5
Big Ten:  4
Pac 10:  2

See the complete bracket here





Way too early top five for 2010

10 01 2010

Guest columnist Blake Borron

I was expecting my first post in far too long to be a victory rant about the Texas Longhorns. In lieu of certain…occurrences, I have instead decided to give a taste of things to come for next season. As much as my heart wants me to crown UT as the preseason #1 team for 2010, my brain and last week’s game only allow one team to surface as the king of the first season of the new decade. Roll Tide!

1. Alabama Crimson Tide: Last year’s national champs are only getting stronger with monster recruiting class after monster recruiting class. Nick Saban is an arrogant tool who wouldn’t smile on his wedding day, but he’s one of the best recruiters and X’s and O’s guys in history.

Strengths: The stars on offense twinkle so brightly you need Oakleys to block out the glare. The running back tandem of Heisman winner Mark Ingram and the possibly even-more-talented Trent Richardson is the best college football has seen since Reggie Bush and LenDale White. Julio Jones will be possibly the nation’s most talented wide receiver, but Marquis Maze is the silent assassin that gives the passing game legitimacy.

Weaknesses: The defense loses massive defensive tackle Terrence Cody and playmaking cornerback Javier Arenas to graduation. Expect linebacker Rolando McClain, the leader of the defense, to follow them to the NFL a year early. The greatest deficiency may be the play of quarterback Greg McElroy. After a dismantling of Florida in the SEC Championship game, Texas returned the favor and embarrassed the first year starter in the National Championship. His play, as well as that of an offensive line that needs to give him better pass protection, will be counted on far more next year.

2. Texas Longhorns: All the momentum the Horns had at the beginning of the National Title Game went out the door when Colt McCoy went out of the game after only five offensive plays. Backup Garrett Gilbert, wide receiver Jordan Shipley, and the defense did their best to pull UT out of a big first-half deficit, but fell just short when Gilbert fumbled the ball inside his own ten.

Strengths: After a sluggish start, Gilbert showed flashes of brilliance against a fierce ‘Bama defense in spite of many miscues by his wide receivers and no semblance of a rushing attack. He will only get better after an off-season knowing he’s THE guy for next year. The team speed on offense, while raw, is matched only by Florida. The UT defense will be one of the best in the country as long as Will Muschamp is in town. The Horns return as much defensive talent as anybody in the country, including freakish lockdown cornerback Aaron Williams and defensive end Sam Acho, who led the team in sacks.

Weaknesses: There are a bunch on offense, most notably the need to improve an offensive line that can only be qualified as one of the worst in UT history. Consequently, that has led to the chronic degeneration of the running game since UT’s title in 2005. The graduation of Shipley, arguably the best wide receiver in UT history, leaves a group of young and/or inconsistent receivers that will now be counted on to make plays with regularity instead of deferring to Shipley. If they don’t step up, there are even younger guys behind them in what many are calling UT’s best receiver recruiting class ever. Injuries have decimated the tight end position the last two years, which has limited Texas’s ability to run. Star departing seniors Sergio Kindle, LaMarr Houston, and Rod Muckelroy, as well as early entry Earl Thomas, must be replaced on defense.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes: Few teams have been doubted more the past few seasons than the Buckeyes, but that seems to be a vanishing state of mind. After a dominant performance in the Rose Bowl over a talented Oregon team, tOSU returns all their skill position players and the majority of their offensive line. A home date with the talented and speedy Miami Hurricanes will go a long way to validating or erasing the perception that Ohio State can’t handle teams with superior fast-twitch muscles!

Strengths: Terrelle Pryor finally seems to be grasping the offense and coming into his own as a playmaker at quarterback. His performance, though far less awe-inspiring, mirrors Vince Young’s 2005 Rose Bowl victory. That led to a national title in the next season, and Pryor hopes to mimic Young’s success. All his weapons return, including favorite target DeVier Posey. The offensive line mauled Oregon’s less talented defensive front and four out of the five starters return. Jim Tressell is still one of the best defensive coaches in college football, so expect to see the usual toughness and strength out of the Buckeye defense.

Weaknesses: Tressell’s seeming lack of ingenuity on offense will plague the team until he unleashes Pryor like he did with Troy Smith in 2006. That will come with increased confidence in Pryor’s decision making, which was impressive in the Rose Bowl. At times the running backs were underwhelming, they need to be more explosive with such a strong offensive line and dual-threat QB like Pryor to take the pressure off of them. On defense, the line must be rebuilt and both standout safeties graduate. DE Cameron Heyward and CB Chimdi Chekwa are a good place to start, but they will need younger faces to step up and make plays if they are going to maintain the standard of play they’ve been at the past few years.

4. Florida Gators: Florida looked fantastic in the Sugar Bowl. Funny how much easier it is against a lackluster team like Cincinnati than, say, Alabama. Timothy Christ…err, I mean Tebow has finally graduated, meaning Urban Meyer (assuming he decides to return) will have to find a new boy toy to fawn over. Perhaps that will be likely starter John Brantley, a highly-touted recruit three years ago.

Strengths: As long as Meyer is at Florida, the recruiting juggernaut will be full steam ahead. That means the Gators will consistently have more talent than basically any other team in the nation, which is why I have them rated so highly despite such heavy losses. The offense is led by speedsters Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey at running back. Lightning-fast Deonte Thompson is the only returning receiver with any kind of experience. He will be joined by the also freakishly-fast Andre Debose, who missed last season with an injury. The offensive line is the best in the nation if Maurkice and Mike Pouncey return at guard and center respectively, but the Gators have some work to do if they both choose to enter the draft.

Weaknesses: It obviously starts at QB, where Tebow leaves to the imminent obscurity of his NFL career and whatever other potential football institutions spring up during his tenure as a professional football player. The man nigh unanimously deemed the greatest player in the history of competition by ESPN, CBS, and, of course, Urban Meyer leaves a gaping hole in the Florida backfield with consequent expectations that Peyton Manning, Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, Jesus Christ, and, certainly John Brantley would not live up to. The defense loses stud linebackers Brandon Spikes and Ryan Stamper to graduation, and shutdown CB Joe Haden to the draft. Freakishly talented defensive end Carlos Dunlap may accompany him. It’s not an issue of talent with the Gators, it’s an issue of getting that talent ready to play week in and week out in the grueling SEC.

5. Oregon Ducks: The other half of the Rose Bowl game returns all but three starters, including proven stars QB Jeremiah Masoli and RB LaMichael James. Oregon has a rare opportunity–the chance to take over the Pac 10 conference. Pete Carroll is Seattle bound and USC is not the team or program it was over the past decade. West coast primacy is shifting north to Eugene in a hurry!

Strengths: It all starts with the multifaceted attack of Masoli and James. Masoli runs the zone read to perfection, and he has good speed in the open field. James, on the other hand, has elite speed and will be one of the top tailbacks in the country after only his freshman year. Backup Kenjon Barner is another speedster in the same mold as James. Oregon loves to get him on the edge and he is a special teams demon. The defense returns all but two starters from a solid unit. Perhaps Oregon’s greatest asset is head coach Chip Kelly, one of the brightest minds in college football.

Weaknesses: Just take a look at the Rose Bowl and you’ll see why I was hesitant to put the Ducks this high on my list. Ohio State out-toughed, out-physicaled, and out-hustled Oregon all afternoon. Oregon just didn’t have the attitude to play in that game, and it resulted in them getting their butts kicked up and down the field for much of the game. Too much finesse, or, to put it simply, they were “soft.” They also don’t have the defensive talent that the top three teams possess. Their defensive line loses both the starters on the defensive side of the ball, which may be a positive because they got absolutely worked by the Buckeyes.





Forever young

10 12 2009

Guest columnist Brendan Wilson

Is there any question to who the best team in college basketball is right now? Following a 64-61 win over #12 Connecticut, Kentucky is now 9-0 and look better than they have in years. Did I mention this win came five days after they downed #11 North Carolina? Maybe we should rewind a few weeks. Kentucky beat Miami-Ohio by two, Sam Houston State by 10, and Stanford by eight in overtime. Having second thoughts? Don’t. This team is for real. Freshman John Wall dropped 25 on UConn last night, and seems to be getting better by the game. Freshman DeMarcus Cousins is a phenom as well averaging almost 15 per game. What about freshman Patrick Patterson, who is averaging over 16 per game. Yes, their three best players are three freshmen who do not shadow away in the spotlight.

John Calipari has this team running on all cylinders. No, they have not faced big size down low like Kansas or as an athletic of a team as Texas, but these past two wins have shown a lot in the character of this team. This is a team who is going to win the SEC easily. Florida and Mississippi are off to good starts but one can only ask how long it will last. Tennessee seems to figure as the Wildcats biggest task within conference play. Next up is a young Indiana team who is playing with a lot of heart, but simply will not contend with this team. After that, Kentucky does not leave their home floor for 30 days. Jan. 2 figures as their next challenge against Louisville. Inexperience seems to be the one question about this team, and I don’t see it being an issue. Kentucky may have finally found its way with one of the best recruiting classes of all time, and in sequence, could be heading to their first final four since 1998. Until then, there is a lot of basketball to be played!





The case for Case

27 11 2009

Every Heisman contender has a Heisman moment – that game where, when it’s over, you say to yourself “wow, he really deserves the Heisman trophy.” After watching Colt McCoy rip Texas A&M to shreds tonight, I sort of had that feeling. Sort of.

After all, it’s easy to make a case for McCoy. He is 12-0, and likely headed for the national championship. He now has 27 touchdown passes and nine interceptions to go along with nearly 3,500 yards. However, the nine interceptions is more than he had in 13 games last season. And in order to match his touchdown and yardage total from a year ago, he needs seven TD passes and about 400 yards in the next two games. Even if he does that, he will have needed 14 games to do what he did in 13 in 2008. To go along with those monster 2008 numbers, he had 591 rushing yards. This year he has just 368, and only because he rushed for 175 tonight. He also has nine fewer rushing touchdowns.

Here’s the question: should we compare a Heisman candidate’s numbers to those of a season ago? My answer is no. But the voters will. And McCoy’s superior 2008 season wasn’t good enough to win the Heisman. Why should this year be different?

So what about Mark Ingram? The Alabama sophomore is 11-0, likely 12-0 after the Iron Bowl, and is averaging 6.8 yards per carry and 127 yards per game. He seems to be getting most of the talk right now, but why? Is it because the Tide are #2 in the nation? Because he plays for a school with a rich tradition? Because he was on the cover of Sports Illustrated?  He only has 12 touchdowns.  We might as well throw UTEP’s Donald Buckrem in the mix as well.  He has more yards, yards per game and touchdowns than Ingram.  And he certainly doesn’t have the offensive line Ingram has.

So do you give it to Ingram, with worse numbers than a handful of running backs from non-BCS schools, because those running backs don’t have to run against SEC opponents?

Here’s another running back you may not know about – Toby Gerhart.  He plays for Stanford.  Stanford is in the Pac 10, and believe it or not, it’s the best conference in the country.  Don’t believe me?  Read this.

Gerhart plays for a school who’s playing nine teams from the best conference in football, plus bowl eligible Notre Dame.  All in all, Stanford has a schedule ranking (13)  that’s 28 places higher than Alabama (41) and 43 places higher than Texas (56).  Gerhart has rushed for 1,531 yards, second only to Buckrem, and has 23 rushing touchdowns, second to no one.  But his team is 7-4.  So I ask, should we give the Heisman to a guy with better numbers but a worse record?  Tim Tebow won the award the year he went 9-4, but finished third the year he won a national championship at 13-1.

It’s taken me a while to get to this option, but I now present you with the only one that makes sense: Case Keenum.  Say what you want about his strength of schedule or the Houston play calling.  I’m about to shut you up.

Keenum is 9-2, and almost surely to be 11-2 following a Conference USA championship in a few weeks.  He is more than 1,000 yards ahead of the next highest passer in the country.  That’s unreal.  Forget the schedule.  He’s a machine.  1,000 yards?  Are you kidding?  He doesn’t have a Jordan Shipley on his team.  There’s no Mark Ingram or Toby Gerhart to balance the offense.  This is a one man show.  Defenses know exactly what’s coming and still can’t stop it.  That’s impressive.  His 36 touchdowns leads the nation going away.  He’s the only player in the country throwing for more than 400 yards per game.  And for those of you saying that his pass attempts are inflated, try wrapping this number around your head: six interceptions.  Six.  in 553 pass attempts.  McCoy has three more in 161 fewer attempts.  And McCoy has a line that doesn’t let anyone touch him.

Keenum, unlike McCoy, will best his 2008 numbers, blow away all 2009 QBs in every statistical category, and, sadly, probably won’t even be invited to New York.  But he should be.  And he should win it.  This is a very interesting race, and the other contenders have too many question marks surrounding their legitimacy.  For once, give it to the little guy, on the little team.

My Heisman ballot:

1)  Case Keenum
2)  Colt McCoy
3)  Toby Gerhart





USC loss creates chaos for BCS

16 11 2009

When the smoke had cleared in the Coliseum Saturday, all that remained was the remnants of a 55-21 thrashing USC took at the hands of upstart Stanford.  Two years ago, Stanford pulled off one of the biggest upsets of all time with a 24-23 win that spoiled USC’s national title hopes.  This time, Stanford’s win spoiled the Trojans’ BCS hopes.

And who gains as a result of USC’s loss?  That would be the Big East.  More importantly the loser of the Dec. 5 showdown between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.  Now that USC has lost again, the loser of that game could still make it to a BCS bowl, especially if that loser is the Bearcats.

Cincinnati is in a position where even a loss to Pitt won’t mean exclusion from the BCS.  They would still be 11-1 and likely in the top 10 in the BCS rankings.  As we learned in 2007, the BCS bowl committee favors one loss teams over strength of schedule, so Penn State and Iowa won’t have much of an argument even if both schools finish 10-2.

If the Panthers lose to the Bearcats, things really get interesting.  The Panthers, as well as a trio of Big Ten non-conference champions (Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin) and Oklahoma State would all be 10-2.  That’s five teams fighting for one spot.

- First, the committee should determine the best of the Big Ten schools.  Iowa should get the nod because they beat both Penn State and Wisconsin, and took Ohio State to overtime in the Shoe without their starting quarterback.  That leaves Iowa, Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh.

- From here, strength of schedule plays a role, but the committee will also look at which teams’ fans travel the best and which are most marketable.  Iowa probably has the advantage in terms of being marketable and traveling well, followed by Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh.  However, Pittsburgh would likely end up playing the most difficult schedule by season’s end.  Their schedule is ranked 57 by the computers right now, but will go up after games against West Virginia and Cincinnati to close the year.  Oklahoma State has the weakest SOS at 60.  Iowa is 33, but with a game against Minnesota remaining, which will deflate the ranking

It will be tough for the committee to call this one.  I can see them taking Iowa because they have been historically kind to the Big Ten.  Iowa has been arguably the surprise team of the year, and they do have quality wins over Penn State, Wisconsin and Arizona.  However, Pittsburgh, again, will probably have the toughest strength of schedule, and more than half of their conference contains teams with three or fewer losses.  That’s quite an argument as well.  Here’s how I see it playing out:

Sugar Bowl:  Alabama vs Cincinnati – The SEC runner-up playing the Big East runner-up.  Both teams will be in the top 10 despite losing their respective final games.

Orange Bowl:  Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh - The ACC champion against the Big East champion.

Fiesta Bowl:  TCU vs Boise State – Both teams will be automatic qualifiers because they will be in the top eight.  The BCS…and the nation…wants to see this game.

Rose Bowl:  Oregon vs Ohio State – The traditional Big Ten champion against Pac 10 champion game.

BCS National Championship:  Florida vs Texas – The BCS #1 against the BCS #2.