Four weeks from yesterday is Selection Sunday, the college sports world’s national holiday. To nobody’s surprise, the bubble seems to be growing as conference play heats up. Below is the complete list of who’s in and who’s out (at large berths only) if the tournament started on Valentine’s Day. For now, I’m just saying that the team with the best conference record in each conference is automatically in, which is why you won’t see them on the list of “locks.” In cases where teams were tied for the conference lead, I gave the team with the higher RPI the bid.
At large locks:
ACC (3)
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
Maryland
Atlantic 10 (3)
Temple
Charlotte
Xavier
Big East (4)
Syracuse
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Georgetown
Big Ten (3)
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin
Big 12 (4)
Kansas State
Texas A&M
Baylor
Texas
Conference USA (1)
UAB
Mountain West (2)
BYU
UNLV
SEC (2)
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
West Coast (1)
St. Mary’s
This leaves 11 at large bids up for grabs. Below is who takes them (in order) as of tonight.
1) Rhode Island Rams – That’s right. The strongest bubble team is the Rams. With an RPI of 21, the 19-5 Rams have wins over Dayton and Oklahoma State, and no terrible losses. The Atlantic 10 is better than the Pac 10, SEC and Mountain West, at least in the top half.
2) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Despite the recent slide, the Jackets have the best strength of schedule in the ACC after Duke, and still only seven losses. They have five wins against the RPI top 40, and if you’re wondering how deep the ACC is, know that Tech is currently in eighth.
3) Clemson Tigers – Clemson’s resumé is nearly identical to Georgia Tech’s. The Tigers’ strength of schedule ranks 31, and they are #30 in the RPI. They sit sixth in the ACC with nonconference wins over Butler and South Carolina, as well as wins over Maryland and Florida State.
4) Dayton Flyers – Another A-10 team deserving of a spot is the Flyers. They are 17-7 but have slipped to seventh in the conference at 6-4. They beat Georgia Tech and Old Dominion out of conference, and Xavier in conference. The RPI ranking is #32, and the strength of schedule is #30.
5) Missouri Tigers – The nonconference schedule was not great, but wins over Old Dominion and Illinois are looking better this month than they did in January. Quality losses include Richmond, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Baylor and Texas A&M. The Tigers are in sixth in the nation’s best conference.
6) Marquette Golden Eagles – Marquette has been competitive in every game this season, and the worst is behind them. However, an RPI ranked #56 and a strength of schedule ranked #54 are worrisome, but they have worked themselves into a situation where they could finish fourth in the Big East.
7) Florida State Seminoles – FSU lacks the big win, but does have enough quality victories and few enough bad losses to warrant a tournament berth. Losing to Maryland twice hurt, but they did beat Georgia Tech twice to make up for it. They are tied for sixth in the ACC.
8) Oklahoma State Cowboys – If the Cowboys’ worst loss is at Oklahoma, count them in. The Pokes have wins over Kansas State and Texas A&M, no bad losses and a strength of schedule ranked #44. The RPI is in the top 40, and they are 5-5 in the Big 12.
9) Mississippi Rebels – Ole Miss has done just enough to squeeze into the field, the biggest asset being a win over Kansas State. Four of the Rebels’ seven losses are to teams in the top 20 in RPI. The strength of schedule isn’t eye-opening, but outside of Arkansas, they’ve won all the games they’re supposed to win.
10) Illinois Fighting Illini – The Illini were a lock until the Ohio State blowout. Even so, they’re winning the games they should win in the Big Ten, and playing well at the right time. Wins over Michigan State and Purdue were a big boost for the team currently in fourth in the Big Ten.
11) Florida Gators – They’ve played a tough schedule and have only two losses against teams with an RPI below 27. Their biggest problem is lack of quality wins. Despite that, I’m still taking the Gators as my last team in with only eight losses over a Louisville team with three bad losses and nine overall losses.
On the outside looking in:
Louisville
Texas Tech
Wichita State
Mississippi State
San Diego State
Virginia
Cincinnati
Washington
South Carolina