Conference tournament predictions

9 03 2010

It’s Championship Week, and my staff had so much fun making picks all year.  Now they get a bonus by having the opportunity to fill out the major conference tournament brackets.  The point system is as follows:

Big East opening round win = .5
First round win = 1
Quarterfinal win = 2
Semifinal win = 3
Championship win = 4

Click on the corresponding tournament under the person’s name to see his or her picks for that conference.

Jaryd’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Kyle’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Molly’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Blake’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Carl’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament

Brendan’s picks

ACC Tournament
Big East Tournament
Big Ten Tournament
Big 12 Tournament
Pac 10 Tournament
SEC Tournament


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AL East – Vazquez pushes Yanks to top

6 03 2010

The AL East is again between the Yankees and Red Sox.  Surprise surprise.  Until baseball institutes a salary cap, this may always be the case.  It may be the most difficult pick to make, so for now I’ll just say that whoever wins on opening night will take the division.

Enjoy reading part four of six.

AL East

1)  New York Yankees – This division could easily go to Boston, but I’m giving the Yankees the edge based on the Javier Vazquez acquisition.  Vazquez had the best year of his career last year, going 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA and 238 strikeouts in 219 innings.  His problem has always been the home run ball, as evident when he gave up 33 in 2004, his only other year playing in the Bronx.  He joins C.C Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte to form a solid 1-4.  Adding Curtis Granderson (.249) is a downgrade from Johnny Damon, and Randy Winn is a suspect left fielder with no power.

2)  Boston Red Sox – I could say the Yankees have the best rotation in baseball, but Red Sox fans might have a quibble, and rightfully so.  Adding John Lackey insures a solid 1-5 whether number five is Clay Buchholz, Tim Wakefield or Daisuke Matsuzaka.  They took a huge chance by picking up Adrian Beltre, who had his worst statistical year in 2009 while playing only 111 games in Seattle.  Marco Scutaro is a nice addition at a key position and Mike Cameron comes over from Milwaukee to play center.  Can all that make up for the loss of Jason Bay?

3)  Tampa Bay Rays – With a year now under his belt, David Price becomes a key part of a rotation that will be expected to keep the Rays competitive in the AL’s best division.  Carl Crawford is the league’s best base stealer, but the lineup behind him is questionable.  New right fielder Matt Joyce has yet to play 100 games in a season, including just 11 in 2009.  They did help the bullpen a bit with the addition of Rafael Soriano, an underrated closer coming down from Atlanta.  Randy Choate and J.P. Howell will have to help get them to Soriano.

4)  Baltimore Orioles – The young O’s are an up-and-coming bunch that should see more success in 2010.  Guys like Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold and Adam Jones are established young players who will contribute along with veterans like Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and newly acquired Miguel Tejada.  They also picked up Garrett Atkins from Colorado to round out a nice lineup.  The rotation is extremely young.  Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman all enter training camp in just their second years in the majors, but all three will likely be starting games.

5)  Toronto Blue Jays – The Jays were able to trade Roy Halladay before his contract year, but that leaves them with absolutely nobody to pitch.  Ricky Romero is the ace, if you can call a guy who went 13-9 with a 4.30 ERA an ace.  Marc Rzepcynski and Brett Cecil will have to step up to anchor the back end of the rotation.  Aaron Hill, Lyle Overbay and Vernon Wells are still there, but it will be a long year for them unless guys like Jose Bautista, Travis Snider and Alex Gonzalez actually hit better than .250.

Monday:  AL Central predictions


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NL West – Giants edge resurgent D’Backs

4 03 2010

Someone responded to my NL Central predictions by telling me that Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun were better than Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.  This after people told me there was no way the Mets would win the NL East.  So I fully expect a rebuttal to this post explaining why the San Diego Padres are going to the World Series, because that seems to be the trend every time I post new division picks.

Enjoy reading part three of six…

NL West

1)  San Francisco Giants – The Giants added some critical pieces last year and in the offseason.  Aubrey Huff, despite a down 2009, is a consistent player and a great glove at first base.  Just two years ago he hit .304 with 32 HRs and 108 RBIs.  Freddy Sanchez is among the best second basemen in baseball, Edgar Renteria is an improvement at shortstop, and Mark DeRosa will be able to benefit from playing every day.  They should have no scoring problems this season.  Don’t forget about the rotation, which includes Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez.

2)  Arizona Diamondbacks – Mark this team down as the league’s most improved, and don’t be surprised if A.J. Hinch wins manager of the year.  A healthy Brandon Webb and the addition of Edwin Jackson gives the Diamondbacks one of the best rotations in baseball.  Justin Upton, Chris Young and Mark Reynolds will all be good again, so it’s up to guys like Conor Jackson and Miguel Montero to fill the offensive void.  The biggest issue may be the bullpen, where setup man Bob Howry and closer Chad Qualls are both average at best.

3)  Los Angeles Dodgers – If everyone in the lineup pulls off repeat performances of 2009, I’ll be way off in my third place prediction.  But I don’t think that will be the case, especially with Matt Kemp and Manny Ramirez.  Ronnie Belliard and Casey Blake are getting up there in years as well, with neither adding much to an already suspect lineup.  The bullpen is solid with Jonathan Broxton and George Sherrill, but the rotation has holes with the departure of Randy Wolf.  Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla are in now, with a fifth starter yet to be decided.

4)  Colorado Rockies – Jason Giambi and Paul Lo Duca are looking to awake from the dead in the thin Denver air, but it won’t happen with this supporting cast.  Ian Stewart needs to hit better than .228, Dexter Fowler needs to hit better than .266 and Carlos Gonzalez needs to play a full season before I believe this offense can score even in the friendly altitude.  To make matters worse, the rotation is terrible now that Jason Marquis is gone.  Ubaldo Jiminez would not be an ace on most teams, but he will have to carry the load for the Rockies staff.

5)  San Diego Padres – The Padres acquired Scott Hairston from Oakland and signed Jon Garland and Yorvit Torrealba this offseason.  Even with a somewhat decent pitching staff, there is nobody surrounding Adrian Gonzalez.  Nobody on the current starting depth chart hit more than 17 home runs or had better than a .265 average last season.  The good news is that they are all young.  If they can somehow keep Gonzalez in San Diego for another year or two, this team could be good.  Until then, get used to a lot of Gonzalez intentional walks.

Saturday:  AL East predictions


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NL Central – A repeat is in the Cards

2 03 2010

I took a lot of flack for picking the Mets to win the NL East, but I’m sure everyone is in agreement about the most obvious division choice in baseball.  The Cardinals are loaded, and no one is going to touch them in the National League Central.  Enjoy reading part two of six…

NL Central

1)  St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals are in prime position to repeat as division champions after resigning Matt Holliday to an explosive contract.  He teams with Albert Pujols to form the most dangerous 3-4 combination in the division, and maybe the league.  Let’s not forget about their rotation.  Though Chris Carpenter will inevitably take a step back, he can still get 15 wins if he stays healthy.  Adam Wainwright will be lights out again, and Brad Penny and Rich Hill were good offseason moves to help fill the back end of the rotation.

2)  Cincinnati Reds – The Cards should have this division locked up by early September, but if there’s any team that may provide a scare before then, it’s Cincinnati.  Though the loss of Edinson Volquez to Tommy John surgery is a big blow, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo lead a youthful and talented rotation that could get even better if Johnny Cueto becomes more consistent.  If Jay Bruce stays healthy and Brandon Phillips has another all-star caliber year, Reds fans may enjoy the season they thought they were going to get in 2009.

3)  Chicago Cubs – The Cubs had a surprisingly stale offseason, but there’s just no one else to put in this spot.  The talent is there for the north siders, and playing at Wrigley means they’ll score some runs.  The only change to their lineup is replacing Milton Bradley with Marlon Byrd.  Otherwise it’s the same pair of 2009 underachievers vowing that this year will be different.  The rotation is a question mark with Ted Lilly out until late April and a fifth starter yet to be determined.  If Ryan Dempster can find his 2008 form, the Cubs could make a splash or two.

4)  Houston Astros – Brett Myers has always been a consistent 4.0+ ERA pitcher, but up until 2009 he has an innings eater, which is probably why Houston took a chance on him.  Wandy Rodriguez stepped up last year, so now it’s up to Myers and Roy Oswalt to stay healthy for Houston to have a chance.  Tommy Manzella goes from getting just five at bats in 2009 to the starting shortstop spot, and he has big shoes to fill with the departure of Miguel Tejada.  I’m still waiting for Lance Berkman to completely drop off, but that doesn’t appear to be happening.

5)  Milwaukee Brewers – The Brew Crew actually have a fairly dangerous three-headed monster with Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and breakout star Casey McGehee.  There are still too many question marks with the team though.  Doug Davis and Jeff Suppan had bad years last year.  How are they expected to fill in behind Yovani Gallardo and newly acquired Randy Wolf?  Can Trevor Hoffman continue to be effective pitching on back to back days with his age.  Will Fielder hit for 2009-like average again in 2010?  Only time will tell.

6)  Pittsburgh Pirates – A record 18th straight losing season is inevitable for this lowly franchise.  Only one starter, Ross Ohlendorf, had a 2009 ERA under 4.00.  Their best offseason acquisition was probably Ryan Church, who won’t do much more than serve as a utility backup outfielder.  Andrew McCutchen will be a fun player to watch, but if he continues to have years like he had in 2009, he probably won’t be in Pittsburgh for very long.

Thursday:  NL West predictions


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NL East – fightin’ Phils finally fall

28 02 2010

It’s March (almost, but I’m very impatient), and that means two things: the world’s best three-week tournament, and spring training.  You’ll hear plenty from me about the former between now and March 18, but right now I’m turning your attention to the latter.  It’s time for my annual MLB predictions.  Last year I correctly predicted in March that the New York Yankees would be the last team standing in October.  This year I go for two straight.  Let the most meaningless of baseball games begin this week as the most meaningful of basketball games do the same.

Tonight, it’s the National League East.

NL East

1)  New York Mets – You think the Yankees lineup is good?  Newsflash: it’s not even the best in the city.  Nothing says resurgence like a healthy Mets lineup, and that’s what Jerry Manuel is hoping to have this time around.  Jason Bay might be the best all-around hitter in the division, and Daniel Murphy is the first baseman after the departure of Carlos Delgado.  The starting pitching is the biggest question mark, but if they can tread water until Carlos Beltran returns in May, they’ll be in good shape to finally fend off the fightin’ Phils in a considerably weaker NL East.

2)  Philadelphia Phillies – The Roy Halladay deal wasn’t all that impressive considering how well Cliff Lee was pitching for them down the stretch, but they needed someone to anchor a rotation that is otherwise average at best.  Like the Mets, the Phillies look like they are once again going to have to outscore teams.  Placido Polanco is a great contact hitter, and Danys Baez should help a weak bullpen, especially if Brad Lidge isn’t ready for opening day.  The Phillies will come up just short in the quest for a fourth straight division title.

3)  Atlanta Braves - There’s a huge drop off between second and third, but I give the Braves the edge to barely oust the Marlins for the coveted middle child spot.  The Melky Cabrera addition doesn’t impress me.  He’s only a lifetime .269 hitter with a .336 OBP, but he may do better without the big spotlight.  Losing Javier Vazquez was big, but top to bottom, the rotation can still compete with anyone in the division.  Keep your eye on Tommy Hanson this year.  He went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA and 116 strikeouts as a rookie.  He could be the team’s ace by season’s end.

4)  Florida Marlins – Please take a look at Florida’s depth chart and tell me if there’s any way this team can crack .500.  I say no, but I’ve said no before and somehow that small-market team from South Beach continues to impress.  Josh Johnson is a Cy Young candidate and Anibel Sanchez is solid, but they won’t be able to score.  Cameron Maybin and Gaby Sanchez will be asked to start everyday and must prove themselves before I can give them respect.  They also have bullpen issues, and will again turn to Leo Nunez to try to finish games.

5)  Washington Nationals – The good news in D.C. is that things can’t get any worse.  Jason Marquis becomes the ace of the staff, and guess what D.C. fans…he has never missed the playoffs in his career!  He will this year, though they should be better.  This offseason they signed Adam Kennedy, Eddie Guardado, Ivan Rodriguez, Willie Taveras and Chien-Ming Wang in an effort to put a team together using only junkyard players.  Jordan Zimmerman will miss most of the season with an elbow injury.

Tomorrow:  NL Central Predictions


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College basketball picks – Feb. 27

27 02 2010


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Ducks not flying together this offseason

25 02 2010

Ducks fly together.

It’s the motto that helped Gordon Bombay’s little league hockey team win the district championship in the film Mighty Ducks.  Apparently that motto never made it to Eugene, Oregon.

Chip Kelly’s football “Ducks” look more like a scattered cluster than a flock.  Plagued by off-field issues since being trampled by underdog Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, the Oregon football Ducks are getting their wings clipped.

More like severed, actually.

All this coming when it seemed Oregon would put a stranglehold on a conference dominated for years by USC.  The Ducks are being picked as a preseason top five team in nearly every “way too early” poll you look at.  But the unraveling just won’t stop.

It started On Jan. 24, just three weeks after the Rose Bowl embarrassment.  Police charged sophomore kicker Rob Beard with assault when he entered a 20-person fight to help former kicker Mike Bowlin.  Beard was knocked unconscious, had to spend two days in intensive care, and had facial surgery.  Bowlin left the team after the brawl.

That same weekend, starting quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and wide receiver Garrett Embry were accused of stealing computers, a guitar and a projector from the Sigma Alpha Epsilon fraternity house, supposedly because members of the house kicked Embry out earlier at a party.  Police have not made any arrests yet.

Six days later, policed charged defensive end Matt Simms for misdemeanor assault after Simms attacked a person he thought was involved in the Jan. 24 brawl with Beard.  Kelly dismissed Simms from the team.

Last Wednesday, police arrested star running back LaMichael James after a fight with his girlfriend and charged him with strangulation, assault and physical harassment.

On Saturday, policed arrested and charged linebacker Kristian Kiko Alonso for driving under the influence of alcohol.  In response to a rumor that Kelly decided to dismiss Alonso from the team, wide receiver Jamere Holland posted several derogatory and expletive comments on his Facebook page, blasting the coach, the program and students who didn’t support him.  He has since deleted those posts, but it was too late.  Kelly kicked Holland off the team.

If all that wasn’t bad enough, Kelly got into a verbal argument during a radio interview with Portland Oregonian John Canzano.

So what does all of this mean?  Well, it means at least three players won’t be showing up to spring practice.  It could be more if Kelly decides to take action against Masoli or James.  It could cost them a Pac 10 title.  It could have no effect.

But it has put a black eye on the program.

And it’s on Kelly to get the Ducks flying together again.


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Bucks making push with Salmons move

23 02 2010

As a relatively quiet and unsurprising trade deadline passed, most of the buzz seemed to be focused on Tracy McGrady headed to New York or the big trade that brought Antawn Jamison to Cleveland.  But neither was the best trade made in the deadline scramble.  That honor goes to the Milwaukee Bucks for the trade made with Chicago to acquire John Salmons.

Salmons was relatively unknown during his first few years in the league.  He had somewhat of a breakout season last year with Sacramento, upping is points per game average from 12 to 18.  The Kings were out of the playoff race, so they traded him to Chicago mid-season, where Salmons helped the Bulls reach the playoffs with steady shooting, as well as four rebounds and two assists per game.

If Salmons gets shots, he will knock them down.  He is a career 44 percent shooter and has had only one season shooting under 40 percent.  But he has always benefitted playing on a team without a prolific scorer.  That’s why he was able to fit in out west in Sacramento, and why he played so well in Chicago last season.  But the emergence of Tyreke Evans forced him out of Sacramento, and now that Derrick Rose is taking more shots, it was again time to dump the underrated sharpshooter from South Beach.

Enter Milwaukee.  A team without that prolific scorer.  A young team with potential through the roof, but thirsting for scoring to make a playoff push.  It was obvious that Salmons would fit in beautifully by playing for his northern neighbor, and he hasn’t disappointed.  He has almost 18 points per game since joining the Bucks, and Milwaukee is 3-0 since trading for him.  In case you’re wondering, Jamison is averaging just 10 points through two games, both losses, with Cleveland and McGrady, though averaging more points, is 0-2 with the Knicks.

Putting Salmons on the floor with potential Rookie of the Year Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut makes for quite a dynamic trio.  But that wasn’t all the Bucks received.  They got 2011 and 2012 second round picks from Chicago as well, and they also traded Jodie Meeks for a 2010 second round pick.  So now, the Bucks have an additional pick in each of the next three drafts, so they will only be getting better over time.

Not that they aren’t good now.  At 27-28, they currently hold the eighth seed in the East.  If we’re keeping track since the trade deadline, they are 3-0.

Salmons is a big reason for that.


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College basketball picks – Feb. 20

20 02 2010


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Imagine “BCS Madness” in basketball

18 02 2010

Every day brings about an argument with my roommates about sports.  These days, a visitor would likely hear me quibbling with one of them over the number of Big East teams that deserve to be dancing in March.  During the college football season, the arguments predictably led to a debate over the current playoff system.

Which is why my eyes lit up when my roommate suggested what very few, if any, had ever thought of.

“What if college basketball used the BCS system?” he asked.

Hmm…what if?

I should say right now that I love March Madness.  The tournament is a lot of fun, and I would never want to see it go away.  But before you dismiss the following idea, consider the proposal below.

Let’s say college basketball did use the BCS system.  There would be no tournament.  The two best teams out of 347 Division 1 teams would play for the national championship.  As for the rest?  The next 32 could play in the NIT perhaps.  Or maybe I develop “bowl” games for the 62 next-best.  Either way, it’s not important.  What is important is how college basketball would determine its national champion.

My roommate and I agree that if the BCS is used, it would have to triple the field to six eligible teams because there are about three times as many D1 basketball schools (347) as FBS football schools (120).  So six teams make the BCS championship, and the champion is determined as follows:

#6 at #3 (winner plays at #2)
#5 at #4 (winner plays at #1)

Winner of 1 vs 4/5 plays winner of 2 vs 3/6 on a neutral court for the title.

Easy enough.

Now on to how to determine the six eligible teams.

The BCS uses the Coaches Poll, Harris Poll and average of six BCS computers to determine the football rankings.  In college basketball, there is a Coaches Poll but not a Harris Poll.  I suggest replacing Harris with RPI.  Though I think the AP Poll is more valid than the Coaches Poll, using both AP and Coaches Polls would not be good because the top six are usually identical.

Four of the six BCS computers also rank college basketball teams (Anderson & Hester and Richard Billingsley do not), so I can use the same computer methods. Ken Pomeroy will be used as a fifth computer.  Because there are only five computers, I will throw out only the median ranking, rather than the highest and/or lowest.

So who would be eligible to play for a national championship right now?

The top six in the Coaches Poll are Kansas, Kentucky, Villanova, Purdue, Syracuse and Duke.

The RPI reads Kansas, Duke, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia and Villanova.

All five computers have Kansas ranked #1.  Since both the Coaches and RPI also have the Jayhawks #1, it’s easy to give them the #1 seed in the basketball BCS.  Their average is 1.

Kentucky does not do too well in the computer rankings.  Only the Colley Matrix has the Wildcats #2.  The median is 4 and the average is 4.5.  Averaging together with the Coaches and RPI gives them a 3.17.

Pomeroy’s computer is going to bring Villanova down.  The Wildcats are ranked #15 in that computer, bring the computer average to 5.75 and the overall average to 4.92.

Purdue got a big win over Ohio State Wednesday, but they are still a consistent 6 in all but one computer, giving them a 5.75 computer average.  Overall, the Boilermakers are a 6.25 because of their low RPI.

Syracuse has a huge game with Georgetown tonight that could alter the rankings, but for now, the Orange have a computer average of 3.25 and an overall average of 4.08.

Duke is ranked sixth in the Coaches Poll but has the #2 RPI.  The Blue Devils have a computer average of 4.5 and an overall average of 4.17.

Outside the top six, West Virginia seems to be the most likely contender.  However, the computers spit out an average of 8.67 for the Mountaineers, giving them an overall average of 6.89.  Purdue’s 6.25 barely beats West Virginia for the sixth spot.

The only other team in consideration is Kansas State.  The Wildcats’ computer average is 9.25, pulling the overall average down to 7.75.

So the six teams in the tournament happen to be the top six in the Coaches Poll.  The matchups are as follows:

(6) Purdue at (3) Syracuse
(5) Villanova at (4) Duke

Purdue/Syracuse at (2) Kentucky
Villanova/Duke at (1) Kansas

Championship on neutral court

I know you are lying if you say you would be even the slightest bit intrigued by this.  Imagine how West Virginia fans would feel.  The Mountaineers are the TCU of college basketball.  Then again, West Virginia did lose to Purdue, who has the sixth and final spot.

How fun would it be to watch college basketball every night, knowing that a loss by any of the top six could make way for #7 or #8 to slide up into the field.

Consider reducing the field to four teams.  Then Villanova, ranked #3 in the Coaches Poll, would be out.

Again, this is purely just for fun.  Everyone imagines what it would be like if college football used college basketball’s system.

Thank you, roomie, for making me imagine the opposite.  Even for just one day.


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